Periodic Updates on the Futures Markets

November canola is up $3.30 per metric ton (mt), Dec soybean oil is down .40 cents per pound, November European rapeseed is up 6.25 euros per mt and November Malaysian palm oil is up .14%. Dec oats are up 3 cents per bushel. October crude oil is down $.41 per barrel, October ULSD is down $.0123 per gallon, and the December Canadian dollar is down .00180 at .72735. The December U.S. Dollar Index is up .570 at 97.090 and the October Brazilian real is down .00005 at 0.18795.

Canola prices continue to firm as the morning progresses with bargain hunting as the most likely reason with Wednesday’s selloff into the close appearing overdone. Otherwise, grain and oilseed markets remain quietly lower despite strong export sales reported earlier. Total export commitments of corn are currently 68% ahead of last year’s pace to date while USDA is expecting a 5% annual increase. The strengthening Brazilian real is getting some of the credit for the export interest. Wheat is not that impressive but still doing well. Total export commitments for wheat are now 20% ahead of last year’s pace compared to USDA expectations for a 9% annual gain. Even soybeans had a respectable week with 923,000 mt in sales despite China’s complete absence. That leaves total commitments in soybeans lagging last year’s pace by 36% while USDA expects it to come in closer to 10% in the end. On a final note, even a corn export sale flash announcement of 110,000 mt to Mexico failed to impress the market with prices still quietly lower.

Outside markets are continuing to reverse initial reactions to the headline news that the Fed expects to cut interest rates twice more this year following Wednesday’s expected quarter-point cut. As mentioned in the opening comments, Powell delivered a hawkish-cut type of press conference following the decision, suggesting they were in no rush to cut rates. That was followed by a better-than-expected weekly jobless claims report and Philly Fed survey result this morning, sending Treasuries lower yet and supporting a U.S. dollar rally. Equity markets have chosen to ignore those factors so far, remaining in record territory.

Energy prices remain quietly lower despite recent attacks by Ukraine on Russian energy infrastructure and talk of increased sanctions against Russia oil exports.