Periodic Updates on the Futures Markets

November canola is down $3.20 per metric ton (mt), Dec soybean oil is up .33 cents per pound, November European rapeseed is down .25 euros per mt and December Malaysian palm oil is up .02%. Dec oats are down 1 1/4 cents per bushel. November crude oil is up $1.12 per barrel, November ULSD is up $.0257 per gallon, and the December Canadian dollar is down .00020 at .71895. The December U.S. Dollar Index is up .416 at 98.700 and the October Brazilian real is up .00025 at 0.18600.

Canola has given up early gains despite strong interest in commodities in general with energy markets strong and gold’s push into much higher record territory gaining attention (hitting $4,072.40 per ounce in early trade after starting the year at $2,641.00). If inflation and buying power of currencies in general are inspiring that much additional value in gold, are commodities in general that much more undervalued than they appear in nominal terms? Time will tell; but that line of thinking has soybeans firming along with soybean oil while corn is reluctantly higher and wheat is mixed. For more, see Tuesday’s post on the topic: https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/blogs/canada-markets/blog-post/2025/10/07/golds-reserve-currency-status-grains.

The soybean market may be benefitting from potential export business to other Asian countries that have already signed trade agreements with the U.S. (as suggested by Treasury Secretary Bessent on Thursday) given reports of improved basis levels for the Pacific Northwest. The November/January spread is making significant gains, to levels not seen since the start of July, suggesting either stronger-than-expected demand or lower-than-expected supply (disappointing yields?). Once the shutdown is over, we will likely know for sure.

Outside markets are far more at ease Wednesday despite the government shutdown with Treasury markets mixed and equities sharply higher. The U.S. dollar continues to gain on its relative attractiveness compared to the euro (thanks to developments in France) and the yen (thanks to the newly elected Prime Minister’s views on policy easing).

Energy markets remain strong despite another build in crude oil stocks in Wednesday’s EIA weekly inventory report. A large decline in gasoline and distillate (diesel) stocks is likely helping with damage to Russian oil infrastructure providing underlying support.