Periodic Updates on the Futures Markets

November canola is up $10.20 per metric ton (mt), Dec soybean oil is down .15 cents per pound, November European rapeseed is down 4.00 euros per mt and December Malaysian palm oil is up .13%. Dec oats are down 7 3/4 cents per bushel. November crude oil is down $.97 per barrel, November ULSD is down $.0514 per gallon, and the December Canadian dollar is down .00030 at .71415. The December U.S. Dollar Index is down .185 at 98.845 and the October Brazilian real is down .00100 at 0.18160.

Canola remains the leader to the upside as traders react to the possibility that Ottawa could reconsider the tariffs on Chinese EV imports. Following the offer by the Chinese ambassador to remove tariffs on canola if Canada did the same on EVs, there has been a strong push from Western Canada, including from the premiers of Saskatchewan and Manitoba, to take them up on it. With the rally into midday, it appears as though the market could close over the 25-day moving average soon if progress can be made. Such a sign of strength would confirm the divergence bottom formation that’s been forming on canola’s daily chart, signaling a more meaningful bounce.

The soybean complex remains under pressure due to the lack of progress on the Chinese front, which also continues to pressure the energy complex. That, despite very respectable export inspections for the week ended Oct. 9 of 994,008 mt, up from 783,495 mt last week. That still leaves accumulated exports lagging last year by 26% with USDA expecting a 10% decline on the year. Corn inspections were toward the lower end of estimates but a respectable 1.130 mmt, down from 1.702 mmt last week but enough that accumulated exports are still running 65% ahead of last year. The USDA is looking for an eventual 5% annual increase. Wheat inspections were slightly weaker than last week but good enough to keep the accumulated export pace 18% higher than last year while the USDA expects an annual increase of 9%.

In outside markets, the anxiety seems to have declined as the morning has progressed with Treasury and equity markets now both mixed and well off their extreme levels of the morning. Crude oil has cut its losses almost in half and the U.S. dollar has given up early gains to turn lower on the day.