Periodic Updates on the Futures Markets

November canola is up $1.90 per metric ton (mt), Dec soybean oil is up .40 cents per pound, November European rapeseed is down .50 euros per mt and November Malaysian palm oil is up .32%. Dec oats are up 2 3/4 cents per bushel. November crude oil is down $.12 per barrel, November ULSD is up $.0298 per gallon, and the December Canadian dollar is down .00105 at .72090. The December U.S. Dollar Index is up .542 at 98.060 and the October Brazilian real is down .00055 at 0.18690.

Grain and oilseed markets have given up their best overnight gains as the morning has progressed, but remain higher on the day. With Argentina reinstating its export tax, that is no longer a focus of anxiety for the market. China spelling out clearly that the U.S. needs to remove “Unreasonable” tariffs for them to remove their 34% reciprocal tariffs, allowing for purchases of U.S. soybeans at competitive prices, seems to be having little impact on the market or on volatility.

Very strong corn export sales reported Thursday morning took total commitments to date over 1 billion bushels at just over two weeks into the marketing year. It also set a record for the pace to date, surpassing the previous record set in 2021. Total export commitments for corn now stand at 75% ahead of last year, while the USDA is currently expecting an annual increase of 5%.

Recent strength in palm oil compared to soybean oil is showing up as new crop soybean oil sales for the week were strong. Total commitments for new crop soybean oil already stand at 172 million pounds compared to USDA’s annual estimate of 700 million. And the marketing year for soybean oil doesn’t start until Oct. 1, so 24.5% already covered may foreshadow future revisions higher, especially if palm oil remains strong.

In outside markets, strong economic reports and lower-than-expected jobless claims have added to concerns that interest rates may not fall as previously hoped. With that, treasury prices and equity markets are both lower while the U.S. dollar has extended its gains, currently well above the 25-day moving average and already challenging the 100-day moving average.