Periodic Updates on the Futures Markets

November canola is down $6.80 per metric ton (mt), Dec soybean oil is down .37 cents per pound, November European rapeseed is down 4.25 euros per mt and November Malaysian palm oil is up .25%. Dec oats are down 1 1/2 cents per bushel. November crude oil is down $2.46 per barrel, November ULSD is down $.0710 per gallon, and the December Canadian dollar is up .00160 at .72165. The December U.S. Dollar Index is down .234 at 97.590 and the October Brazilian real is up .00050 at 0.18765.

Grains have recovered from overnight losses on a record-setting pace for corn export inspections (up 52% from last year) and strong wheat inspections (up 15% from last year). Both are well ahead of USDA projections for the year at 5% and 9% higher, respectively. It’s worth repeating that very strong corn export sales reported Thursday morning took total commitments to date to over 1 billion bushels (bb) at just over two weeks into the marketing year. That set a record for the pace to date, surpassing the previous record set in 2021. Total export commitments for corn now stand at 75% ahead of last year while the USDA is currently expecting an annual increase of 5%.

Oilseed markets remain lower despite soybean export inspections coming in in the middle of expectations and 16% higher than year ago levels. The USDA is projecting a 10% decline for the year, and prices have been under significant pressure thanks to the absence of China. Soybean oil and canola are the laggards thanks to crude oil losing over $2.40/barrel on concerns over another OPEC+ production hike being considered at this weekend’s meeting.

In outside markets — Treasuries remain strong, equities have turned mixed, and the U.S. dollar losses are building — all tied to the potential for a government shutdown. The retreat from the 100-day moving average for the dollar is not a great look technically (from a strength point of view).