Periodic Updates on the Futures Markets

November canola is up $1.40 per metric ton (mt), Dec soybean oil is up .36 cents per pound, November European rapeseed is down 1.25 euros per mt and October Malaysian palm oil is up .29%. Dec oats are up 1/4 cent per bushel. October crude oil is down $1.23 per barrel, October ULSD is up $.0534 per gallon, and the September Canadian dollar is up .00160 at .72320. The September U.S. Dollar Index is down .197 at 97.550 and the September Brazilian real is up .00080 at 0.18495.

Grain and oilseed markets are firming as the morning progresses, led by soybeans on early reports of disappointing yields as harvest begins. That has inspired concerns that yields may come in even lower than the average estimates gathered ahead of Friday’s WASDE update thanks to increasing drought impacts. Soybeans will be particularly sensitive to a yield decline due to the sharply lower planted area. Corn is not as strong thanks to lower-than-expected weekly export sales reported this morning. That said, total commitments for 2025-26 corn exports have already hit 22.601 mmt, 69.1% ahead of last year’s pace of 13.362 mmt at this time. USDA is looking for a 2% annual increase. Canola is stronger as well thanks to continued gains in soybean oil and harvest delays for most of the Canadian Prairies.  

Energy markets are extending early losses as it becomes increasingly clear that NATO leaders are trying to downplay the Russian drones landing in Poland in an attempt to avoid any further escalation. That reduces the potential for retaliatory actions that might restrict Russian crude oil exports.

A mixed CPI report out this morning was overshadowed by sharply higher than expected weekly jobless claims. The claims came in at 263,000 compared to 235,000 expected and 237,000 last week. Yet another indication of a labor market in need of stimulation with lower interest rates intended to help the economy. Stagflation may yet be an issue given the CPI headline number was hotter than expected at .4% month over month when .3% was expected and .2% was seen last month. That resulted in year-over-year headline CPI coming in at 2.9% as expected but above last month’s 2.7%. Core CPI came in as expected and equal to last month.

Treasury prices rose on the jobless claims data with the U.S. 10-year note dipping briefly below 4% while the market continued to price in one quarter point rate cut for each of the September, October and December meetings.

The news sent stocks higher, into record territory yet again and pressured the U.S. dollar with it looking more all the time like a retreat from the 100-day moving average may be signaling a more significant decline to come.