Showers Favor the Western Corn Belt Through Mid-September

Across the Midwest, southern Minnesota, western Wisconsin, and northern Iowa received rainfall earlier this week while points to the south and east remained mostly dry. A few spots in southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa received around 0.5 inches of rain from a system that came through on Tuesday. Temperatures also started warming up through the week after some frost tagged northern areas early this week. Through the upcoming weekend, temperatures will continue to be warm as high temperatures hit the 90s in Iowa and Illinois. Rain showers will favor western areas again as a front will nudge into Minnesota and Iowa on Sunday, providing scattered showers. Next week, an upper-air ridge will shift east into the Great Lakes and keep the eastern half of the Midwest mostly dry. A few systems from the West will provide rounds of showers to western areas, but this could cause some harvest delays as farmers start harvest on early-planted soybeans.

Frost hit the Northern Plains, especially across North Dakota, earlier this week. Additionally, a few spotty showers moved through eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. Rainfall generally remained below 0.25 inches for most areas. Some farmers are still trying to finish up spring wheat harvest across the region and an active pattern this weekend and next week could make that challenging. Widespread rainfall is expected from eastern Montana into the central Dakotas, and some spots could see rainfall exceeding 1-1.5 inches between Saturday and Sunday. Much like other parts of the central United States next week, temperatures will mostly be above average as high temperatures approach the 70s or 80s. Along with the warmer temperatures, systems from the West will drift into the region and provide rounds of isolated to scattered showers. The rain will be favorable for crops that are still filling.  

Showers favored the Central Plains to West Texas during the first half of this week. Across the Flint Hills of Kansas, rainfall approached nearly one inch. Across Nebraska, showers were more hit or miss. This weekend, a cold front will provide a swath of rain to the Central Plains and West Texas while the southeast Plains remain mostly dry. As farmers in the Central Plains start to ramp up harvest efforts, the rain will likely cause some delays that could linger into next week as well. While showers could be spotty, there are still moderate chances for some areas to see over one inch of rain through the first half of next week. High temperatures will be above average, especially across the Eastern Plains next week. Highs could approach the middle 90s for the southeast Plains next Monday and Tuesday.

The Mississippi Delta stayed dry earlier this week and dry conditions will likely continue into the weekend and early next week. River levels along the lower Mississippi are starting to get low but the drier conditions are favorable for harvest and maturing cotton. During the second half of next week, a few daytime showers may tag parts of Arkansas and northern Mississippi, but these may be too isolated and light to offer much help to river levels. Conditions across the Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America) are still being monitored for any potential tropical storms that could drift north and impact the gulf shore.  

Much like the Mississippi Delta, the Southeast stayed dry this week with high pressure dominating the weather pattern. Temperatures stayed slightly cooler though in the wake of last weekend’s cold front. Over the upcoming weekend and early next week, conditions are still forecast to be dry. A few daytime showers or isolated storms could develop later next week, but these don’t appear widespread. Additionally, temperatures are expected to gradually rise near to above average next week with highs getting back into the 80s and 90s.

Throughout the West, scattered rain showers moved through the Pacific Northwest, northern California, and the Northern and Central Rockies as a large upper-air trough crashed into the West Coast earlier this week. Rainfall totals approached 0.5-1 inch in Oregon and northern California. Monsoonal rains in the Southwest mainly tagged New Mexico and southwest Colorado earlier this week and throughout the upcoming weekend, they’ll continue to favor New Mexico and Colorado. Later this weekend, another system will come crashing into the Pacific Northwest, leading to moderate to locally heavy rain showers in the Cascade Mountains. Next week, temperatures will start gradually climbing above average along the West Coast after the recent stretch of cooler temperatures this week.  

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com