Cotton Digs In

After facing essentially unfriendly WASDE numbers Tuesday, the cotton market is swimming atop bearish waters Wednesday morning. Tuesday, USDA kept the 2025 crop unchanged with 13.92 million bales, but lowered exports by two million bales, thus pushing domestic ending stocks to 4.40 million bales. Traders will now focus on acres, weather, and exports.

Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. EST, the Labor Department will report on U.S. payrolls for January. The original release was delayed due to the temporary government shutdown. Estimates call for a non-farm payroll number between 70,000 and 80,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.4%, versus January’s jobs pace of 55,000 jobs. 

Thursday, the NCC will release its 2026 acres survey. Although not an official government report, nonetheless, it will be the first fundamental look at the potential for 2026. Last year’s survey showed planting intentions of 9.6 million cotton acres, down 14.5% from 2024.

Also Thursday, USDA will issue its weekly export sales data. Last week saw sales of 250,000, up 25% weekly, and shipments of 235,000 bales, off 9% weekly, but up 25% on the four-week pace.

Chart support for July cotton stands at 64.60 cents and 64.00 cents, with resistance around 66.45 and 67.00. Wednesday morning’s estimated volume is 22,502 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling (229) 890-7780.