Cotton Presses the Upside

The cotton market was materially higher today amid fears that adverse weather may cripple 2026 yields. Thus, speculators have been covering previously held bearish positions, even to the point of possibly reversing to a net carry.

Thursday at 8:30 a.m. EDT, traders will see a new round of export sales from USDA. Last week’s data showed net weekly sales were 319,000 bales, down 14%, while shipments were 342,000 bales off 4%.

First notice day for the May contract is April 24. Its delivery period runs through May 6.

Also, on Thursday and this Friday, traders will see fresh retail sales data and updated housing starts numbers. Both of those reports reflect a large portion of domestic demand for the cotton industry.

On Friday, the CFTC will update its weekly Commitment of Traders information. Last week, the managed-money funds were pegged net-short by a hair, a mere 2,020 contracts. The update will be released at 3:30 p.m. EDT.

Generally speaking, the 6- to 10-day forecast maps show above-average chances for Texas and the Delta, while the 8- to 14-day outlook shows similar potential to a parched Southeast. The transition to ENSO neutral and eventually El Nino conditions could allow for better rainfall chances later in the year.

The Indian Meteorological Department is forecasting rainfall to reach 92% of the long-period average (LPA) versus what is considered the “normal” 96%-104% range. USDA now estimates that Vietnam cotton imports for 2025/26 will hit 7.6 million bales. Imports for 2026/27 are expected to grow 10% to 8.4 million bales. Vietnam’s textile and apparel exports grew 5% during 2025.

For Wednesday, July closed at 77.42 cents, up 90 points; December 2026 closed at 78.35 cents, plus 115 points; and March 2027 finished at 79.19 cents, 121 points lower. Wednesday’s estimated volume was 98,489 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com