Cotton Higher as Outside Markets Recover

The cotton market remains resilient in the face of declining sister markets and remains so in their recovery. Monday saw corn and soybeans trade sharply lower, with some bean contracts limit-down; but cotton stayed strong as it considered its own positive fundamentals.

The Trump/Xi meeting has apparently been delayed by at least a month. President Trump said Monday the U.S. has asked for a delay due to the ongoing war with Iran. Trump was expected to travel to China at the end of March for the meeting with Xi. At their recent Paris meeting, the advance parties for both sides had great talks, with China expressing buying interest in other “non-soybean crops,” implying cotton. That inference helped to lift the ICE market.

The Climate Prediction Center revealed 88% of U.S. cotton planted area is suffering some form of drought. The current 6- to 10-day outlook has below- to much-below chances for rain for the entirety of the Cotton Belt, as well as above- to much-above temperatures.

This week, traders will see various economic reports and events, including housing starts, the meeting of the Federal Reserve Tuesday and Wednesday, and weekly export sales.

USDA will issue its Planting Intentions Report on March 31. This will be the first official look at 2026 acres. The survey is conducted in the first two weeks of March.

Overnight, crude oil has jumped nearly 4% as uncertainty lingers over a U.S.-led coalition to protect shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, there are mixed messages coming from the Trump administration over the war’s possible duration. Weirdly, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. was allowing Iranian oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Chart support for July cotton stands at 69.30 cents and 68.95 cents, with resistance around 71.00 cents and 71.70 cents. Tuesday morning’s estimated volume is 33,504 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling (229) 890-7780.