Cotton Labors Sideways to Lower

The cotton market continues to trace a sideways, congesting pattern on the charts. Traders are awaiting any fresh price moving influences that might emerge.

Wednesday’s U.S. retail sales report for November showed total seasonally adjusted sales up 0.6% from October and up 3.3% year-over-year, as the holiday shopping season gained momentum. Clothing and accessories stores again outperformed many categories with an approximate 0.9% monthly gain, reflecting stronger apparel demand during early holiday shopping.

USDA issued its weekly export sales report Thursday morning with the following data:

Net sales of Upland totaling 339,700 RB for 2025/2026–a marketing-year high–were up noticeably from the previous week and up 89 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (127,400 RB, including 100 RB switched from Japan and decreases of 100 RB), China (57,200 RB), Pakistan (48,000 RB, including 100 RB switched from China and decreases of 300 RB), Indonesia (25,200 RB), and Bangladesh (14,500 RB), were offset by reductions for Japan (100 RB). Net sales of 10,100 RB for 2026/2027 were reported for Costa Rica (7,200 RB), El Salvador (2,600 RB), and Pakistan (300 RB). Exports of 156,100 RB were up 1 percent from the previous week and 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (56,200 RB), Pakistan (24,900 RB), China (18,200 RB), Turkey (13,500 RB), and Indonesia (10,200 RB).

On Friday, the CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders information. Last Friday’s numbers showed the managed-money funds had net-bought some 1,300 positions, reducing their net-carry to 47,700 contracts.

Traders are still waiting to see if the U.S. Supreme Court validates the president’s tariffs. Supposedly, a ruling will be announced soon. However, if the tariffs are invalidated, the Trump administration says it has other “legal options” to keep them in place. 

Chart support for March cotton stands at 64.60 cents and 64.00 cents, with resistance hovering about 65.25 cents and 65.75 cents. Thursday morning’s estimated opening volume is 11,105 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling (229) 890-7780.