Cotton Stirs Higher Monday

The cotton market is somewhat positive Monday morning, as traders are anticipating a slew of economic reports this week. In addition, the U.S. dollar is lower, given the Dow Jones and the precious metals are substantially stronger. 

The CFTC published its latest Commitments of Traders report last Friday. Its data showed managed-money funds bought 2,086 contracts, reducing their net-short position to 58,243 contracts. There will be other catch-up releases this week.

November nonfarm payrolls figures are set for release Tuesday, along with October retail sales figures. These reports were delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown that took place in the fall. Also, the November CPI (consumer price index) will be published Thursday.

USDA is set to issue an export sales report Monday and Thursday. We note that current cumulative sales for 2025-26 have reached 5.44 million bales, down from 6.05 million at this time last year. Sales are hovering at 11-year lows. In percentages, U.S. cotton sales have reached 49% of USDA’s current season forecast, which is below the 5-year average of 65% for this point in the marketing year.

Daily chart support for March cotton stands at 63.70 cents and 63.00 cents, with resistance hovering about 64.55 cents and 64.95 cents. Monday morning’s estimated opening volume is 8,313 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling (229) 890-7780.