Cotton Up, But Holding Its Breath

The cotton market is somewhat higher Tuesday amid all of the unfolding U.S./Iran machinations. Tuesday at 8 p.m. EDT, marks the deadline for the Iranians to open the Strait of Hormuz to allow international shipping to navigate unencumbered, or else.

Monday, USDA issued its first crop progress report of the 2026 season. It showed U.S. plantings at 5%, matching the five-year average. Only Arizona, California, and Texas have initiated recordable plantings.

USDA will issue a new round of export sales Thursday. Last week saw combined seasonal sales over 488,000 bales. Shipments were 356,000, down 11% weekly.  

Also Thursday, USDA will update its supply-demand tables via the April WASDE report. Supposedly, government tabulators will not assign a yield number until the May report. 

Friday, traders will see a fresh readout of consumer prices via the April CPI. Certainly, increased fuel prices and surcharges have been spreading across shipping and airlines, a signal that energy disruptions are already feeding into consumer costs.

Also on Friday, the CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders data. Last week saw the managed-money funds had net bought some 21,000 positions, reducing their net-short carry to 12,266 contracts. 

Chart support for July cotton stands at 73.00 cents and 72.45 cents, with resistance around 74.60 cents and 75.00 cents. Tuesday morning’s estimated volume is 32,872 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling (229) 890-7780.