Crude and Cotton Up, Lifted by Energies

The overnight dynamic move seen in the energy complex is somewhat lifting most boats, including cotton. Last night, crude oil surged to $119-plus per barrel, which is its highest price since Russia invaded Ukraine. Such a dramatic spike has renewed fears of inflation, and that notion is pushing the depressed agricultural row-crop markets somewhat higher.

Friday, the CFTC updated its Commitments of Traders data. Last week, the managed-money funds had sold some 7,500 positions, increasing their net-short carry to 72,937 contracts. For context their record bearish position stands at 81,358 contracts.

Spot March cotton saw 25 delivery notices Monday, bringing the total to 630 for this reporting period. Spot delivery will end Monday at 5 p.m. EDT.

Tuesday at noon EDT, USDA will release its updated supply-demand tables via the March WASDE. Average trade estimates for 2025-26 U.S. cotton production stand at 13.90 million bales, slightly down from the 13.92 million reported in February. Exports are expected at 11.97 million bales versus 12.00 million in February, and ending stocks are expected to be at 4.36 million bales compared to the previous 4.40 million bales. World 2025-26 production is expected at 119.80 million bales, versus the 119.86 million in February. Consumption looks to be 118.75 million versus 118.72, and ending stocks are projected at 74.80 million bales versus 75.11 million in the February update.

Chart support for July cotton stands at 65.50 cents and 65.00 cents, with resistance around 67.10 cents and 68.00 cents. Monday morning’s estimated volume is 26,210 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling (229) 890-7780.