Corn, Soy and Bean Oil Firm in Quiet Trade Wednesday; Wheat Mixed to Weaker

CME GLOBEX RECAP:

May corn is up 3 3/4, May soybeans are up 8 1/2 cents. May KC wheat is down 3, May Chicago wheat is down 3 1/4, and May MIAX Minneapolis wheat is unchanged.  

OUTSIDE MARKETS:

The Dow Jones Industrials Index rose 317 points on Tuesday and Dow futures are up 44 points early Wednesday. May crude oil futures are up 35 cents per barrel. The U.S. Dollar Index is up .095 and May gold is down $15.40 an ounce.

CORN:

May corn futures are moderately higher for the second straight day. Tuesday night and early Wednesday showers and storms are making their way across the central U.S. and Corn Belt. Storms brought large hail and winds to parts of Iowa and Wisconsin overnight. Early Wednesday showers are falling in Oklahoma, southeast Kansas through Missouri, Iowa and into the Great Lakes. More strong storms are expected in northern Texas, Oklahoma and eastern Kansas. That is sure to slow planting progress in the center of the country. Crude oil is just slightly higher after falling to as low as $87 per barrel overnight as the U.S. and Iran are slated to meet for a second time to talk about a peace plan. Corn got a boost on Tuesday after a total of 316,000 metric tons (mt) of sales were announced to Mexico and another 120,000 mt to unknown destinations. The Mexico sale included just 65,000 mt for 2025-26 with the balance spread between the next two crop years. Also supportive to corn is talk that farmers could shift more corn acres to soybeans. The EIA will be out with the weekly petroleum status report and expectations are for ethanol production to slip by 1% to 2%. In other news, Brazil’s supply company, CONAB, raised their estimate for Brazilian corn to 139.6 million metric tons (mmt). That is up 1.3 mmt and is far above the last WASDE estimate of 132 mmt. Couple that with the idea that the Argentine crop could be as much as 8 mmt higher than the USDA and export competition is about to heat up. Funds remain net-long corn to the tune of over 200,000 contracts. DTN’s National Corn Index closed at $4.06 with a corn basis of 37 under the May futures contract.

SOYBEANS:

Soybean oil is recovering early Wednesday and that has pulled up beans to a strong start, Soymeal is also modestly higher. Recent soy weakness has stemmed from concern that the scheduled mid-May meeting between President Trump and Xi from China could get pushed back, thereby impacting old-crop U.S. soy demand. However, with the second meeting rumored to be taking place this week with hopes of reaching a solution to end the war, beans have bounced back up. The March NOPA crush report is expected later Wednesday, and the estimate is for a record crush of near 230 million bushels (mb). Traders are also expecting soybean oil stocks to reach a high not seen in 13 years. In other news, Brazil’s CONAB also increased their estimate of Brazil’s record soybean crop by 1.2 mmt to 179.15 mmt and just shy of the WASDE estimate of 180 mmt. U.S. soybean seeding is running at a record fast pace of 6% done, but is sure to face some delays as storm systems with some severe weather, are moving across the central U.S. Although managed money funds have recently whittled down their large net long in the soy complex, it is still a large 435,000 contracts. Expect volatility to remain high as traders await word on peace talks. DTN’s National Soybean Index closed at $10.91 with a soybean basis of 67 under the May 2026 futures.

WHEAT:

Wheat markets are mixed to mostly lower. After two big rally days, Kansas City wheat is taking a breather as forecasts have added the chance for some rain relief in the second week of the forecasts. However, hard winter crop ratings have continued to fall and the forecast remains mostly dry for the arid western Plains. Last week’s Drought Monitor had a new high of 68% of winter wheat areas embroiled in some level of drought. Good to excellent ratings for some key HRW states fell again and Texas, Oklahoma and Nebraska ranged from just 10% to 15% good to excellent. Number one producing-state Kansas was not much better at 32% good to excellent with over 30% of that crop rated poor to very poor. The obvious impact on hard winter yields from the extreme dry spell is having less impact as world wheat supplies remain burdensome. Funds remain net long Kansas City futures but are holding a modest net short in Chicago. That area of winter wheat that produces soft red winter is favorable with a good chance of trend yields. DTN’s National HRW Index closed at $5.32 and 70 under the May futures board.

Dana Mantini can be reached at Dana.Mantini@dtn.com