DTN Canola Analysis & Recommendations

12/18/2025

**Note To Readers**

Beginning in mid-November, CFTC announced they will begin chronologically releasing Commitments of Traders reports delayed by the government shutdown from Oct. 1 through Nov. 12 on a bi-weekly basis. As a result, DTN’s Six Factors Strategies will begin reflecting the most recently released commercial and noncommercial positions beginning on Nov. 21, which will be several weeks in arrears and are not planned to be current until late January. We thank you for your patience as the government works to catch up on delayed reports.

There was a new recommendation on June 17, 2025, for the 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons.

POSITIONS

2025-26: Made a forward sale of 20% of 2025 canola production on June 17,2025 with November canola trading near C$740.00. 80% of 2025 canola production remains unsold.

2024-25: Made a forward sale of 25% of 2024 canola production on June 17, 2025, for June delivery with July canola trading near C$745.00. 25% of 2024 canola production remains unsold.

2024-25: Made a forward sale of 25% of 2024 canola production on April 22, 2025 when July canola was near C$673.00. 50% of 2024-25 canola production remains unsold.

2024-25: Made a forward sale of 25% of 2024 canola production on May 31 when November canola was near C$678.00.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT

The trend in January canola is revised to sideways. In their final production estimate of the year, Statistics Canada estimated 2025 canola production at a record 21.8 million metric tons, 13.3% higher than in 2024. Meanwhile, from a demand perspective, exports of canola seed are down sharply from the same point in 2024, as China has implemented a 75% tariff on imports of Canadian canola in retaliation for Canadian tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Crush on the other hand remains a steady demand source, running slightly ahead of the same point in 2024. November canola is currently a neutral, Type 3 market.

DAILY NOTE

January canola futures closed down C$8.40 on Thursday to C$588.30. Corn led the way higher for grain markets following another impressive week of export sales totals as well as rumors that China has purchased seven cargoes of U.S. corn out the PNW. That helped wheat given the low premium to corn already but did little to stop the selling in oilseed markets. Despite another 114,000 mt soybean flash sale announcement (to unknown destinations, most likely China), the oilseed complex still has few friends. Prices continued drifting lower, trying to find buying interest. Weaker diesel futures did not help despite crude oil being higher. The trend in canola futures is sideways for now.

RECOMMENDATIONS*

(6/17/2025)

2024-25 and 2025-26:

We are recommending a sale of 25% of 2024-25 canola production for June delivery with July canola futures trading near C$745/mt. We are also recommending selling the first 20% of conservatively expected 2025 canola production with November canola futures trading near C$740/mt. We are recommending these sales, not because we have lost faith in the bullish fundamentals of strong demand amid tight supplies and concerns over new crop production, but as part of a disciplined marketing strategy that rewards market rallies with incremental sales. With July canola now over $180/mt above the March low and November canola now $160/mt above its March low, both canola and soybean oil are looking overbought and due for a correction, and the best hope for widespread rainfall this spring in extended forecasts — failing to do so would not be appropriate. With 25% of 2024-25 production remaining, we expect to look for a rally to $800/mt resistance to make the final sales recommendation for old crop — always on the lookout for a potential need to abandon the strategy.

(4/22/2025)

2024-25:

We are recommending a sale of 25% of 2024-25 canola production for April/May delivery with July canola currently trading above C$670/mt. We are recommending the sale, not because we have lost faith in the bullish fundamentals of strong demand amid tight supplies, but as part of a disciplined marketing strategy that rewards market rallies with incremental sales. With July canola now over $100/mt above the March low, basis levels improving by over $20/mt and some profit taking at February highs being seen recently — failing to do so would not be appropriate. With 50% of 2024-25 production remaining, we expect to look for a break above resistance to make additional sales this spring.

(5/31/2024)

2024-25:

Take advantage of the recent spring rally and make a forward sale of 25% of 2024 canola production at this time. November canola is trading near C$678.00.

(1/26/2024)

2023-24:

Oilseed and vegetable oil markets continue to break down with the March contract returning close to the January low as prospects of a large Brazil soybean crop weigh on prices. Sell 50% of 2023-24 canola for May delivery, focusing on crusher sales wherever possible. The May is close to $620/mt.

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*DTN recommendations are general in nature and are not intended to be specific for any particular person or farming business. The buying and selling of futures or options involves substantial risk and is not suitable for everyone. DTN accepts no responsibility for actual trades made.