DTN Canola Analysis & Recommendations

10/20/2025

**Note To Readers**

Due to the ongoing government shutdown, updated Commitments of Traders data will not be included in DTN’s weekly Six Factors Strategy update until the CFTC report resumes its normal Friday afternoon publication. Thank you for your understanding.

There was a new recommendation on June 17, 2025, for the 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons.

POSITIONS

(6/17/2025)

2025-26

Made a forward sale of 20% of 2025 canola production on June 17, 2025, with November canola trading near C$740.00. 80% of 2025 canola production remains unsold.

2024-25

Made a forward sale of 25% of 2024 canola production on June 17, 2025, for June delivery with July canola trading near C$745.00. 25% of 2024 canola production remains unsold.

(4/22/2025)

2024-25

Made a forward sale of 25% of 2024 canola production on April 22, 2025, when July canola was near C$673.00. 50% of 2024-25 canola production remains unsold.

(5/31/2024)

2024-25

Made a forward sale of 25% of 2024 canola production on May 31 when November canola was near C$678.00.

(1/26/2024)

2023-24

Sold 50% of production as a cash sale for May delivery.

(1/5/2024)

2023-24:

Sold 50% of production as a cash sale for May delivery.

2022-23

March 9, 2023: Sold 60% of production as a cash sale.

Dec. 19, 2022: Sold 40% of production as a cash sale.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT

The trend in January canola is down for now. The dry start to the 2025 growing season in western Canada gave way to much improved conditions by mid-summer, pushing production expectations to 5% higher than 2024 at 22.6 million tons as of the most recent AAFC report, with canola harvest in Canada drawing to a close. From a demand standpoint, canola exports as of the period ending October 12 are 59% below the same point in 2024, due to the EV related tariffs implemented by China on Canadian canola seed but also partly due to the tight stocks situation through late summer leaving the pipeline thinly supplied. Domestic crush demand for canola on the other hand is up roughly 3.2% from the same point last year. November canola is currently a neutral, Type 3 market.

DAILY NOTE

January canola futures closed down C$0.30 on Monday, settling at C$630.00. Excellent weekly export inspections (especially considering the absence of China from the soybean market) helped to confirm what cash markets have been indicating, that export interest remains strong amid the government shutdown. Soybean inspections came in above the highest estimate at 1.474 mmt compared to 1.074 mmt last week. The comparable week last year was noticeably higher at 2.55 mmt when China was taking their traditional fall allotment of the oilseed. Monday’s total does show strong demand from non-China Asian importers which may simply change the distribution of the shipping schedule. Time will tell. The confirmation of strong export interest helped soybeans return to near-session highs with optimism around talks with China remaining. Soybean oil reluctantly joined in with the soybean oil/meal spread action minimizing the gains. Canola turned lower at the close again, unable to maintain early gains. The trend in canola futures is lower for now.

RECOMMENDATIONS*

(6/17/2025)

2024-25 and 2025-26:

We are recommending a sale of 25% of 2024-25 canola production for June delivery with July canola futures trading near C$745/mt. We are also recommending selling the first 20% of conservatively expected 2025 canola production with November canola futures trading near C$740/mt. We are recommending these sales, not because we have lost faith in the bullish fundamentals of strong demand amid tight supplies and concerns over new crop production, but as part of a disciplined marketing strategy that rewards market rallies with incremental sales. With July canola now over $180/mt above the March low and November canola now $160/mt above its March low, both canola and soybean oil are looking overbought and due for a correction, and the best hope for widespread rainfall this spring in extended forecasts — failing to do so would not be appropriate. With 25% of 2024-25 production remaining, we expect to look for a rally to $800/mt resistance to make the final sales recommendation for old crop — always on the lookout for a potential need to abandon the strategy.

(4/22/2025)

2024-25:

We are recommending a sale of 25% of 2024-25 canola production for April/May delivery with July canola currently trading above C$670/mt. We are recommending the sale, not because we have lost faith in the bullish fundamentals of strong demand amid tight supplies, but as part of a disciplined marketing strategy that rewards market rallies with incremental sales. With July canola now over $100/mt above the March low, basis levels improving by over $20/mt and some profit taking at February highs being seen recently — failing to do so would not be appropriate. With 50% of 2024-25 production remaining, we expect to look for a break above resistance to make additional sales this spring.

(5/31/2024)

2024-25:

Take advantage of the recent spring rally and make a forward sale of 25% of 2024 canola production at this time. November canola is trading near C$678.00.

(1/26/2024)

2023-24:

Oilseed and vegetable oil markets continue to break down with the March contract returning close to the January low as prospects of a large Brazil soybean crop weigh on prices. Sell 50% of 2023-24 canola for May delivery, focusing on crusher sales wherever possible. The May is close to $620/mt.

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*DTN recommendations are general in nature and are not intended to be specific for any particular person or farming business. The buying and selling of futures or options involves substantial risk and is not suitable for everyone. DTN accepts no responsibility for actual trades made.