DTN Canola Six Factors

TREND: The trend for January canola is down for now.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial traders were net-short 8,438 contracts of canola as of Sept. 23, net-sellers of 8,562 contracts from the previous week’s net-long position during the CFTC reporting period.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercial traders held a net-long position of 10,117 contracts of canola as of Sept. 23, the most recent CFTC report. January canola is currently priced C$11.10 below the March futures contract, a carry structure that narrowed slightly over the most recent week.

SEASONAL INDEX: Canola prices tend to peak between December and February and bottom in July or August.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The price of front month (January) canola closed the most recent week at the 16th percentile, an inexpensive price location for buyers within the five-year range.

VOLATILITY: The three-month price volatility for front month (January) canola held at 5% as canola prices traded slightly higher for the sixth straight week, although gains through that period have covered just over C$42 per metric ton.