DTN Canola Six Factors

TREND: The trend for January canola is revised to sideways.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial traders were net-short 45,627 contracts of canola as of Oct. 14, the most recent CFTC data. Traders were net-sellers of 12,994 contracts from the previous week’s position.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercial traders held a net-long position of 46,735 contracts of canola as of Oct. 14, the most recent CFTC report. January canola is currently priced C$13.30 below the March futures contract, a carry structure that widened over the most recent week, and remains among the highest degree of carry over the life of the contracts.

SEASONAL INDEX: Canola prices tend to peak between December and February and bottom in July or August.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The price of front month (January) canola closed the most recent week at the 16th percentile, an inexpensive price location for buyers within the five-year range.

VOLATILITY: The three-month price volatility for front month (January) canola held at 4% as canola prices traded higher on the week and now higher in seven of the past eight weeks.