DTN Cattle Six Factors

TREND: The trend in February live cattle is steady.    

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial traders held a net long futures position of 105,593 contracts in live cattle for the week ending Sept. 23 — as traders continue to be keenly aware of the market’s historical position, but also are aware of the seasonal declines that are taking place in boxed beef prices and fed cash cattle prices and are concerned about the technical risk.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: On the futures board, commercials remain moderately short in live cattle as of Sept. 23, likely hedged positions. Packers were again able to get cattle bought cheaper this week and making matters even worse is the fact that some of the Northern cattle were committed for delivery midway through October.  

SEASONAL INDEX: Cash cattle prices tend to peak in March and bottom in October.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The most active futures contract (February) dropped two points to the 79th percentile, the lowest price probability point for the market since late 2023.

VOLATILITY: The three-month price volatility for February live cattle gained one point to the 6th percentile as traders recognize the technical vulnerability in the market, but are still acknowledging the market’s positive fundamental outlook from a long-term perspective.