DTN Feed Corn Six Factors

TREND: The trend for May corn is higher for now.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial corn traders held a net-long futures position of 334,757 contracts as of March 31, and were net-sellers of 40,603 contracts during the CFTC reporting period as traders took profits on long positions ahead of what was expected to be a large corn stock’s figure in the March 31 report.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercial corn traders held a net-short position of 273,643 contracts as of March 31, and were net-buyers of 40,579 contracts through the CFTC reporting period. The May 2026 contract is priced 11 cents lower than the July 2026 contract, narrowing (less carry) slightly through the week, but still among the highest degree of carry between the two contracts through their trading lives. National average corn basis firmed 2 cents through the past week to 39 cents under the May board, the weakest basis of the past decade for early April.

SEASONAL INDEX: Corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom in early October.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The front month (May) corn futures contract finished the most recent week down 2 points to the 16th percentile, an attractive location for buyers within the five-year range.

VOLATILITY: Three-month price volatility for the most active (May) corn contract held at 7% after prices traded lower for the third consecutive week.