04/15/2026

The latest recommendation was posted on March 20, 2026. See Recommendations below.

POSITIONS

*NOTE REGARDING 2025-26 CROP SALES*: In December 2025, USDA offered details for Farmer Bridge Assistance payments, with corn producers receiving $44.36 per planted acre, or approximately $0.26 per bushel based on the 2025 national average corn yield of 186.5 bushels per harvested acre, and 92% national average for harvested area.

2025-26: On March 20, 2026, hedged the remaining 50% of old-crop 2025 corn production by buying July 2026 $4.70 puts and selling July 2026 $5.25 calls for a net cost of near 10 cents. 100% of 2025 corn production is hedged, while 50% remains unsold in the cash market.

2026-27: On March 20, 2026, forward sold another 15% of new-crop 2026 corn production with December 2026 futures near $4.91. 75% of new crop 2026 corn remains unsold/unhedged at this point.

2026-27: On March 4, 2026, sold 10% of 2025 corn production with May corn futures near $4.42 and the DTN National Corn Index likely near $4.03. Also, sold the first 10% of 2026 corn production with December 2026 corn futures near $4.68. 50% of 2025 corn is unsold at this point. 90% of 2026 corn is unsold at this point. 

2025-26: Previous orders would have filled on Monday, Oct. 27. Leaving 60% of 2025-26 corn production unsold at this point.

2025-26: Placed an order to sell the next 20% of 2025 corn production in cash for fall delivery when December futures hit $4.30. Simultaneously, placed an order to sell the remaining $4.20 December puts for 4 cents. Upon fills, net cash price should be near to $3.83 after previous option premiums are taken into account.

2025-26: Sold 20% of 2025 corn production in cash for harvest delivery on Sept. 17, 2025, with December corn futures trading near $4.30, and the DTN National Corn Index near $3.88. Simultaneously unwind previous put/call hedge, sell $4.20 Dec puts near 8 1/2 cents and buy $4.75 Dec calls near 2 cents, for a net cost of 5 cents for the hedge. Leave put/call protection in place on 30% of production for now. Net cash for the sale should be near to $3.83.

2025-26: Hedged 50% of 2025-26 corn production with a custom min/max strategy. Bought $4.20 Dec 2025 corn puts near 20 cents and sold $4.75 Dec 2025 corn calls near 8 1/2 cents for a net cost of near 11 1/2 cents.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT

The corn market trend is downgraded to sideways, as momentum has turned bearish over the last week of March and first part of April. The market has quickly erased war related premium as USDA estimated that 95.3 million acres of corn will be planted by U.S. producers in spring 2026, higher than had been anticipated in light of rising fertilizer prices following the onset of war in the Middle East. In addition, March 1 U.S. corn stocks were reported as an all-time high and north of 9 billion bushels. Planting season is officially underway for 2026, at 3% complete nationally as of the first week of April, and timely rainfall has recently reduced drought across the corn belt. The market will continue to monitor the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and subsequent fertilizer implications, but it is likely that the weather (both in the U.S. and Brazil) will take the reigns as the driver of corn prices through the third and fourth quarters of the marketing year. The corn market is a neutral, Type 3 market.

DAILY NOTE

May corn futures rose 8 1/4 cents on Wednesday to $4.51 1/4. July futures were up 8 cents to $4.60 1/2. The corn market rallied back above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages on Wednesday, supported by technical buying and also the idea that producers may switch more 2026 acres away from corn amid high nitrogen fertilizer costs. Also supportive is dry conditions for Brazil’s safrinha corn crop just ahead of pollination. For now, the trend in corn futures is revised to sideways.

RECOMMENDATIONS*

(3/20/2026)

2025-26 and 2026-27: With the corn market rallying back toward calendar year highs but also showing some fatigue just below those highs, I recommend taking action to protect gains thus far. For the remaining 50% of old-crop 2025-26, I like purchasing July 2026 $4.70 puts currently bid near 23 cents, while simultaneously selling July 2026 $5.25 calls currently asked near 12 1/2 cents, for a net cost of just over a dime for the strategy. This allows for some upside ahead of the typical corn market seasonal highs while protecting the rally thus far. At the same time, consider forward contracting another 15% of 2026-27 production to get to an even 25% hedged. December corn futures are near $4.91 at the time of this recommendation. I remain cautiously optimistic through April and May of a seasonal high, but also believe it is appropriate to reward the rally incrementally. We will continue to monitor for hedging opportunities over the next 2-3 months.

(3/4/2026)

2025-26 and 2026-27: With the corn market rallying from mid-January lows, and the new-crop December board hitting a ninth month high on March 3, consider some risk-off sales of 10% of both 2025 old-crop inventory for spot delivery and a forward sale for 2026. At the time of the recommendation, the DTN National Corn Index was likely near $4.03, netting $3.95 cash when previous option hedge premiums are accounted for. December 2026 futures were near $4.68, with confidence that a cash price north of $4.40 is attainable for harvest delivery. 

(1/13/2026)

2025-26: Regarding 2025-26 crop sales, in December 2025, USDA offered details for Farmer Bridge Assistance payments, with corn producers receiving $44.36 per planted acre, or approximately $0.26 per bushel based on the 2025 national average corn yield of 186.5 bushels per harvested acre, and 92% national average for harvested area.

(10/27/2025)

2025-26: The previously recommended orders to sell 20% of 2025-26 corn production in cash as well as sell previously purchased puts would have filled on Monday, Oct. 27. 60% of 2025-26 production remains unsold, which we will continue to monitor the market for selling opportunities.

(10/23/2025)

2025-26: Take advantage of the sharp rally in corn prices through mid-October and place an order to sell the next 20% of 2025-26 corn production in the cash market for fall delivery if and when December 2025 futures hit $4.30. Simultaneously, place orders to sell the remaining $4.20 December 2025 corn puts still in place hedging 30% of 2025 production at 4 cents, to lock in a net premium paid for the puts of 16 cents. The strategy is to allow the previously sold calls to expire worthless, locking in a 7 1/2 cent cost for the hedge. Net cash after premiums paid for this sale should be near to $3.83.

(9/17/2025)

2025-26:

With corn futures rallying despite USDA’s most recent forecast pointing toward a massive 16.8-billion-bushel (bb) record corn crop, I recommend rewarding the rally thus far with a sale of 20% of 2025 production for harvest delivery. Recommendations are done with the assumption that 50% of production can and will be stored past harvest. December futures were near $4.30 at the time of this recommendation and the DTN National Corn Index was near $3.88. Simultaneously, unwind the previously recommended put/call hedge strategy: the $4.20 puts can be sold for near 8 1/2 cents, while the $4.75 calls can be bought back for 2 cents, locking in 5 cents for the hedge on 20% of production. On another note, I would strongly recommend any unsold bushels delivered this fall to at least have the basis set, which avoids costly monthly storage fees while reserving your space in the elevator should space constraints cause elevators to need to go to “contract only” purchases.

(8/6/2025)

2024-25:

With corn futures largely ignoring technical support points and seemingly on a path to follow 2024’s seasonal path lower through August, I recommend canceling the previous working order and selling the remaining 25% of 2024 corn production in the cash market. September 2025 corn futures were trading near $3.76 at the time of this recommendation which should put the DTN National Corn Index near $3.60 cash. This is certainly a disappointing sale to close the 2024-25 marketing year, but at this point, with less than a month remaining in the old crop season, I believe attention should be shifted to focusing on the 2025-26 marketing year, attempting to learn from this year’s marketing mistakes while aiming for improvement in the upcoming year.

(7/7/2025)

2024-25:

With corn futures gapping lower as trade resumed following the Independence Day break, I recommend lowering the previously recommended price target for selling the remaining 25% of 2024 production to $4.17 September futures. This is the top of the chart gap left following Sunday’s bearish open. Beyond that, firm downtrend resistance is in place in the corn market, which will likely take a weather event or fundamental surprise to break given the strong seasonal pressure for futures over July and August. September futures are near $4.10 at the time of this recommendation.

(7/3/2025)

2024-25:

The old crop corn fundamental outlook has grown somewhat dreary over the past month or two, as Brazil’s production potential has grown and it is also beginning to seem likely that U.S. ending stocks will grow from the current USDA estimate of 1.365 billion bushels before the end of the season. With these things in mind, consider placing an order with your broker or grain buyer to sell the remaining 25% of 2024 corn production if September futures hit $4.28, the location of downtrend resistance. With the current basis of 14 cents under the September board, net cash should be near $4.14 for this sale. September futures are currently near $4.21 at the time of this recommendation.

(6/30/2025)

2025-26:

Due to the volatile nature of the June Acreage and Stocks report, as well as the overall downward pressure on new crop corn futures due to what has thus far been a non-threatening growing season, consider protecting against further downside risk by purchasing $4.20 December 2025 corn puts bid near 20 cents, covering 50% of 2025 production. Simultaneously, sell December 2025 $4.75 corn calls for near 8 1/2 cents for a net min/max cost of 11-12 cents. The sold call helps to finance the put protection while also allowing upside participation back towards 2025 highs in the event of a late summer rally. For those without brokerage access, consider looking into grain company managed programs, many of which include structured min/max products that function in a similar way.

*DTN recommendations are general in nature and are not intended to be specific for any particular person or farming business. The buying and selling of futures or options involves substantial risk and is not suitable for everyone. DTN accepts no responsibility for actual trades made.  

TREND: The trend for May corn is revised to sideways for now.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial corn traders held a net-long futures position of 290,819 contracts as of April 7, and were net-sellers of 43,938 contracts during the CFTC reporting period as traders have been active securing profits after building their largest length in corn futures in over a year by late March.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercial corn traders held a net-short position of 232,969 contracts as of April 7, and were net-buyers of 40,674 contracts through the CFTC reporting period. The May 2026 contract is priced 10 cents lower than the July 2026 contract, narrowing (less carry) slightly through the week, but still among the highest degree of carry between the two contracts through their trading lives. National average corn basis firmed 1 cent through the past week to 38 cents under the May board, still the weakest basis of the past decade for early April.

SEASONAL INDEX: Corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom in early October.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The front month (May) corn futures contract finished the most recent week down 3 points to the 13th percentile, a very inexpensive price to buyers.

VOLATILITY: Three-month price volatility for the most active (May) corn contract held at 7% after prices traded lower for the fourth consecutive week.