04/15/2026

Note: Futures and options are typically not good hedging tools for the cattle market. For hedging purposes in your state, check Livestock Risk Protection coverage and quotes at https://public.rma.usda.gov/livestockreports/LRPReport.aspx.

POSITIONS

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CURRENT ASSESSMENT

Following last week’s incredible rally, the live cattle complex chopped sideways throughout most of the week as traders desired to push the contracts higher but wanted to see what was going to develop fundamentally before doing so in an aggressive manner. The most recent week’s cash trade is currently undefined, with feeders passing on bids throughout the day and remaining firm on their asking prices. June live cattle is a Type 2, somewhat bullish market.

DAILY NOTE

June live cattle closed $0.35 lower at $251.07 as traders remain hesitant to be overly supportive of the complex without first seeing what’s going to develop in the cash market this week. A single bid of $248 was offered throughout the day in Kansas but no cattle have traded yet. Wednesday’s slaughter is estimated at 109,000 head — steady with a week ago but 11,000 head less than a year ago.

RECOMMENDATIONS*

There have been no hedge recommendations yet in 2025 and none are expected anytime soon, as long as cattle supplies remain tight.

*DTN recommendations are general in nature and are not intended to be specific for any particular person or farming business. The buying and selling of futures or options involves substantial risk and is not suitable for everyone. DTN accepts no responsibility for actual trades made.  

TREND: The trend in June live cattle is steady/somewhat higher.   

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial traders held a net long futures position of 104,016 in live cattle for the week ending April 7, an increase of 11,756 contracts as traders returned to steady buying in the cattle market amid lingering supply concerns and strengthening seasonal demand.  

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: On the futures board, commercials remain moderately short in live cattle as of April 7 likely hedged positions. At the time of this writing no cash cattle trade has developed, as packers and feedlot managers are in a locked standoff.

SEASONAL INDEX: Cash cattle prices tend to peak in March and bottom in October.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The most active futures contract (June) remained steady at the 99th percentile as live cattle futures once again challenge all-time highs amid supply concerns ahead of seasonally strong demand.

VOLATILITY: The three-month price volatility for June live cattle remained steady at 4% as the futures market continues to desire for the complex to scale higher and believes fundamental support will justify the move.