Grain Trade Adjusts Higher Wednesday

MARKET SUMMARY:

ICE May canola was C$1.8 higher at C$705.9, May corn closed up 8 1/4 cents per bushel at $4.51 1/4 and July corn was up 8 cents at $4.60 1/2. May soybeans closed up 9 cents at $11.67 0/1 and July soybeans were up 10 1/2 cents at $11.83 1/4. July KC wheat closed up 2 1/4 cents at $6.38 1/2, May Chicago wheat was up 1 3/4 cents at $5.93 3/4 and MIAX July Minneapolis wheat was up 0.02 cents at $6.5425.

OUTSIDE MARKETS:

The Canadian dollar closed up 0.00245 at $0.7303, and the June U.S. Dollar Index is trading down 0.078 at 97.830. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 81.29 points at 48,454.70. June gold is down $27.50 at $4,822.60, May silver is up $0.01 at $79.55 and May copper is up $0.0110 at $6.0945. May crude oil is down $0.26 at $91.02, May heating oil is up $0.1097, June RBOB is up $0.0215 and May natural gas is up $0.012.

OILSEEDS:

Soybean futures led the market higher midweek, with early-week market softness finally fading given the lack of market volatility in financial markets and energy trade. July and August contracts led the market higher, although all nearby contracts closed 9 to 10 cents higher by the end of the trading session. Easing tensions between trade between U.S. and China continues to surround activity and potential restrictions and strikes on Iran. For now, there is a sense of calm, but this will continue to be a volatile market situation over the foreseeable future. May soybeans closed up 9 cents at $11.67 0/1 and July soybeans were up 10 1/2 cents at $11.83 1/4. NOPA released its soybean crush report on Wednesday, reporting that members crushed 226.2 million bushels (mb) of soybeans in March, the second-highest monthly total ever. This suggests total U.S. crush will fall near 232 mb when USDA releases its next Fats and Oils report in early May. If true, cumulative crush for the marketing year thus far (September through March) would be 8.9% ahead of the same point in 2025. USDA raised its crush forecast in the April WASDE to 2.610 billion bushels (bb), a 6.7% year over year increase. Crush margins are spectacular currently, with May board crush north of $4.00 and a record high.

“World soybean news remains quiet, with record production all but confirmed out of Brazil. Brazil export offers remain a 70-cent per bushel or so discount to U.S. offers, though that gap does tend to close through the summer months. The jury is still out on where Argentina’s crop will fall, but it is expected to be a three-year low at 48 mmt by USDA. Meanwhile, world reserves are expected to remain near record high through 2026. The DTN National Soybean Index finished Tuesday at $10.91. Wednesday’s futures close and Tuesday’s national average soybean basis of 67 cents under the May board would indicate the index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $11.00,” stated DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery.

CANOLA:

Canola futures shifted higher Wednesday with gains of around C$2 per ton in most nearby and deferred contracts. The general lack of market volatility surrounding Middle East tensions seemed to add some market stability to the complex. Although at this point, very little long-term change has been confirmed, in either trade projections or production levels. May contracts settled C$ 1.8 per ton higher at C$705.9 per ton, while most actively traded July contracts closed C$2 per ton higher at C$718.6 per ton.

ICE reported the following canola cash prices:

1 Canada NCC: CAD per MT

WHEAT:

Wheat futures slowly followed the direction of the rest of the grain complex Wednesday. Although very sluggish market movement was seen during the first half of trade during the day, light but solid buying interest continued to move back into the market. The upward market shifts seen early in the week are helping to carry additional market momentum through the entire complex, with all exchanges posting light to moderate gains at the end of the session. Rainfall chances for areas in much need of moisture, such as western Kansas, eastern Colorado, Nebraska, and South Dakota, were added to the 15-day outlook Wednesday but are not slated to arrive until the final days of April.

“For world wheat, news is slim currently as the market will have to wait and see on other 2026 crops, but conditions are reported as mostly good across the E.U. as well as the Black Sea. The first sign of concern for 2026-27 wheat supplies may come via Australia, where conditions are very dry and fertilizer costs high just ahead of planting for the next crop. The DTN National HRW Index finished Tuesday at $5.52, while the DTN National HRS Index was $6.02. Wednesday’s futures close and Tuesday’s national average soybean basis of 70 cents under the July board for HRW, and 50 cents under the July board for HRS, would indicate the indices for Wednesday afternoon to be near $5.55 and $6.04, respectively,” stated DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery.

CORN:

Corn futures adjusted higher Wednesday, as moderate to strong gains in all nearby and most deferred contract months offset most, if not all, of early week losses. The stability in energy and financial markets following wide swings over the past few days seems to have created renewed fundamental buyer support through corn trade. Technical support also slowly developed through the last half of the session, with prices rallying back above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages. May corn closed up 8 1/4 cents per bushel at $4.51 1/4 and July corn was up 8 cents at $4.60 1/2. The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that last week’s ethanol production averaged 1.120 million barrels per day (bpd), an increase of 4,000 bpd from the prior week. Production has outperformed seasonal expectations through April thus far, typically a time of year where production slides as plants take maintenance while producers are busy with fieldwork. Year-to-date ethanol production is now running 2% ahead of the same point in 2025 (through the corn marketing year). Ethanol margins remain stellar, with USDA reporting a $2.95 gross margin in Iowa, the highest weekly average since November 2022 and about $1.50 ahead of this point last year.

“In world corn news, the situation in Brazil is growing more crucial, with not much for rainfall expected over the next week and the last week of April featuring isolated fronts. The wet season in Brazil typically ends in early May, but that may have started early this year and be problematic for safrinha corn. Meanwhile, heavy rainfall in Argentina is likely no longer much benefit to the corn crop, and more of a hindrance to harvesting efforts. However, this crop will be important to monitor given the large disagreement between agencies, with a 15 million metric ton (mmt) gap between USDA and the Rosario Grain Exchange as one example. The DTN National Corn Index finished Tuesday at $4.06. Wednesday’s futures close and Tuesday’s national average corn basis of 37 cents under the May board would indicate the index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $4.15,” stated DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery.