DTN Wheat Six Factors

TREND: The trend is bearish for December Chicago and Kansas City wheat.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial traders were net-short 72,159 futures contracts of Chicago wheat, a decrease of 8,877 contracts in the week ending Sept. 16.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercials decreased net longs to 73,100 contracts of Chicago wheat as of Sept. 16, a decrease of 8,877 contracts. The December Chicago wheat contract is 13 3/4 cents under the March contract, the firmest close for the spread since February amid strong nearby demand. December KC wheat is 11 3/4 cents below the March contract, a spread that was drastically tighter through the most recent week and the lowest amount of carry from the December to March contracts through 2025 thus far.

SEASONAL INDEX: Seasonal influence is weak for winter wheat, but winter wheat prices tend to peak in early August and bottom near Thanksgiving.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The most active Chicago wheat contract (Dec) rose to the 5th percentile, an extremely inexpensive price location within the five-year range.

VOLATILITY: Three-month price volatility held at 4% after December Chicago wheat closed higher for the third straight week.