Is Cotton Trying to Bottom?

After punching out contract lows in recent days, the cotton market is attempting to gather itself to move sideways, if not higher. Some analysts believe the funds are record net-short and there are seasonal tendencies for prices to bottom. Yet, demand remains soft (no pun) with sales hovering just above 10-year lows.

Some analysts expect the U.S. government could open soon, given “No Kings” rallies have been held. To date, the shutdown has severed the normal reporting services of their ability to gather and disseminate their data.

As of this writing, the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi is still on during an economic conference in South Korea at the end of the month. Thus, there remains at least a glimmer of hope for a trade deal. China has been an “OK” buyer of U.S. cotton for the past couple of years. The last U.S. export sales report released before the government shutdown (Sept. 18) showed China had purchased 70,000 bales thus far for 2025-26. That amount pales in comparison to her purchase of 462,000 bales in 2024-25 and her 5-year average of 1.697 million.  

The 6- to 10-day weather outlook (Oct. 25-29) calls for above-normal temperatures from Texas to Georgia. Rain-wise, Texas looks to have below-normal chances, while the Delta and the Southeast will see slightly above-normal opportunities.

Daily chart support for December cotton stands at 63.75 cents and 63.25 cents, with resistance at 65.30 cents and 66.00 cents. Monday morning’s estimated volume is 10,911 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.comor by calling (229) 890-7780.