DTN Canola Analysis & Recommendations

04/15/2026

There was a new recommendation on March 6, 2026, see Recommendations below.

POSITIONS

2025-26: Sold 20% of 2025 canola production on March 6, 2026, with May canola trading near $730 per mt. 60% of 2025 canola production remains unsold at this time.

2024-25: Made a sale of the final 25% of 2024 canola production for immediate delivery with May canola trading near C$680 per mt.

2025-26: Made a forward sale of 20% of 2025 canola production on June 17,2025 with November canola trading near C$740.00. 80% of 2025 canola production remains unsold.

2024-25: Made a forward sale of 25% of 2024 canola production on June 17, 2025, for June delivery with July canola trading near C$745.00. 25% of 2024 canola production remains unsold.

2024-25: Made a forward sale of 25% of 2024 canola production on April 22, 2025 when July canola was near C$673.00. 50% of 2024-25 canola production remains unsold.

2024-25: Made a forward sale of 25% of 2024 canola production on May 31 when November canola was near C$678.00.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT

The trend in May canola remains higher for now, though prices have been a bit top-heavy in recent weeks. Canola futures have steadily climbed through the first quarter of 2026 as relations between China and Canada have improved and with strong positive influence from soybean oil futures as the U.S. EPA finalized very agriculture friendly biofuel blending mandates in March. Canadian canola production was a record in 2025, but early forecasts for the upcoming 2026-27 season call for lower production and a 47% draw down in stocks on an expected stabilization of export demand and increased domestic crush demand. May canola is currently a moderately bullish, Type 2 market.

DAILY NOTE

May canola futures closed at C$705.90 on Wednesday, up C$1.80. With reports surfacing that the U.S. and Iran are considering a two-week extension of the current ceasefire agreement (set to expire April 21), the idea of the Strait of Hormuz being closed for longer is setting in. Both sides seem to think they can outwait the other (which is partially true — both can likely survive it being closed indefinitely), but the world certainly cannot function properly without vessel transit being allowed. An example of that supported grain and oilseed markets Wednesday. A survey from the American Farm Bureau Federation found critical issues with fertilizer supply and affordability. Only 19% of farmers from southern states and 67% of those in the Midwest had fertilizer prebooked. Nationwide, roughly half of those surveyed suggested that they can’t afford to apply a normal rate of fertilizer. It’s hard to imagine trendline yield being achieved under such a scenario. With that, corn led the way higher with a sharp rally in diesel prices helping the oilseed complex join in. A strong Canadian dollar may have dampened enthusiasm in the canola market. The trend in canola futures is higher for now.

RECOMMENDATIONS*

(3/6/2026)

2025-26:

Recommend making a sale of 20% of 2025 canola production for immediate delivery with May canola currently trading around $730/mt. Following a $140/mt rally in less than three months (based on the nearby active contract — with the roll premium partly offsetting carrying costs) and a $20/mt improvement in basis levels over that same period, it is prudent to reward the rally as part of a disciplined marketing strategy. With soybean oil and crude oil hitting levels not seen since 2022 and the Trump administration determined to try to slow the ascent, it is time to make a sale considering the volatile nature of the situation. We have not given up on our bullish thesis, but considering the overbought nature of the market, we do want to carry on with our strategy of incrementally rewarding rallies.

(2/18/2026)

2024-25:

Following a nearly $100/mt rally in the last two months (based on the nearby active contract – with the roll premium partly offsetting carrying costs) and a $20/mt improvement in basis levels over that same period, it is prudent to clean out the bins on the 2024 production. The 20% of 2025 production that was sold in June for fall delivery helped with bin space and cashflow, allowing us to be patient on this final sale. With Wednesday’s rally, the gap down that had remained from Aug. 28 is now full and resistance is being challenged. We have not given up on our bullish thesis but considering the overbought nature of the market, do want to carry on with our strategy of incrementally rewarding rallies.

(6/17/2025)

2024-25 and 2025-26:

We are recommending a sale of 25% of 2024-25 canola production for June delivery with July canola futures trading near C$745/mt. We are also recommending selling the first 20% of conservatively expected 2025 canola production with November canola futures trading near C$740/mt. We are recommending these sales, not because we have lost faith in the bullish fundamentals of strong demand amid tight supplies and concerns over new crop production, but as part of a disciplined marketing strategy that rewards market rallies with incremental sales. With July canola now over $180/mt above the March low and November canola now $160/mt above its March low, both canola and soybean oil are looking overbought and due for a correction, and the best hope for widespread rainfall this spring in extended forecasts — failing to do so would not be appropriate. With 25% of 2024-25 production remaining, we expect to look for a rally to $800/mt resistance to make the final sales recommendation for old crop — always on the lookout for a potential need to abandon the strategy.

(4/22/2025)

2024-25:

We are recommending a sale of 25% of 2024-25 canola production for April/May delivery with July canola currently trading above C$670/mt. We are recommending the sale, not because we have lost faith in the bullish fundamentals of strong demand amid tight supplies, but as part of a disciplined marketing strategy that rewards market rallies with incremental sales. With July canola now over $100/mt above the March low, basis levels improving by over $20/mt and some profit taking at February highs being seen recently — failing to do so would not be appropriate. With 50% of 2024-25 production remaining, we expect to look for a break above resistance to make additional sales this spring.

(5/31/2024)

2024-25:

Take advantage of the recent spring rally and make a forward sale of 25% of 2024 canola production at this time. November canola is trading near C$678.00.

(1/26/2024)

2023-24:

Oilseed and vegetable oil markets continue to break down with the March contract returning close to the January low as prospects of a large Brazil soybean crop weigh on prices. Sell 50% of 2023-24 canola for May delivery, focusing on crusher sales wherever possible. The May is close to $620/mt.

**

*DTN recommendations are general in nature and are not intended to be specific for any particular person or farming business. The buying and selling of futures or options involves substantial risk and is not suitable for everyone. DTN accepts no responsibility for actual trades made.