DTN Soybean Analysis and Recommendations
04/15/2026
The most recent Recommendation was on March 30, 2026. See Recommendations below.
POSITIONS
*NOTE ON 2025-26 CROP SALES*: In December 2025, USDA offered details for Farmer Bridge Assistance payments, with soybean producers receiving $30.88 per planted acre, or approximately $0.59 per bushel based on the 2025 national average soybean yield of 53 bushels per harvested acre, and 99% national average for harvested area.
2026-27: Forward sold another 15% of 2026 soybean production for harvest delivery with November 2026 soybean futures trading near $11.52. 65% of 2026 soybean production remains unsold at this time.
2026-27: Forward sold another 10% of 2026 soybean production for harvest delivery with November 2026 soybean futures near $11.32. The sale leaves 80% of new-crop 2026 soybeans unsold/unhedged at this time.
2025-26: Sold another 15% of 2025 soybean production for April delivery with May soybean futures trading near $11.44. 15% of 2025 production remains unsold.
2026-27: Placed an order to sell/hedge 10% of 2026 soybean production if and when November 2026 soybean futures hit $11.10.
2025-26: Placed an order on October 28, 2025 to sell another 10% of 2025-26 soybean production for December/January delivery if and when January futures hit $11.10.
2025-26: Sold 10% of 2025-26 soybean production for December/January delivery with January 2026 futures near $10.81, and the DTN National Soybean Index likely near $9.94 for nearby delivery. 40% of 2025-26 soybean production remains unsold.
2025-26: Sold 15% of 2025-26 soybean production with November soybean futures trading near $10.27 and the DTN National Soybean Index likely near $9.54, for net cash of approximately $9.35 after deduction of previous put protection cost. 50% of 2025-26 production remains unsold.
2025-26: Liquidated half of previous put protection at 3 5/8 cents, locking in a 16 3/8 cent cost for hedge on 25% of 2025 production. Sold 15% of 2025-26 soybean production with November soybeans trading near $10.53, for a net hedge very near to $10.37 futures, and a cash price likely near to $9.70, depending on fills.
2025-26: Purchased $9.80 November 2025 soybean puts, bid at 20 cents per bushel, representing 50% of 2025 soybean production.
2025-26: Sold first 20% of 2025-26 soybean production with November soybean futures trading near $10.55.
2024-25: 100% sold on 2024/25 soybean production. Average cash sale ~ $10.48.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
The trend in soybean futures is revised to sideways for now, as most active (May) futures have turned rangebound near $11.60 following the March 16 limit lower session following President Trump’s postponement of his visit to China (now rescheduled for mid-May). In the March Prospective Plantings report, USDA estimated that 84.7 million acres of soybeans will be planted this spring, lower than many had anticipated. Price direction is currently torn between faltering export demand and accelerating crush demand for the old crop season. Traders may be waiting to see how the 2026 planting and early growing season progresses, along with the Trump/Xi Summit in May, before committing to a large shift in market bias. Soybeans are currently seen as a neutral, Type 3 market.
DAILY NOTE
May soybeans closed up 9 cents on Wednesday to $11.67. July futures were up 10 1/2 cents to $11.83 1/4. The soybean market recovered from a two-day selloff to start the week, boosted early Wednesday when President Trump said President Xi of China had agreed not to send weapons to Iran. NOPA soybean crush for March was reported as the second highest monthly total on record at over 226 million bushels. May futures recovered at the 50-day moving average after closing below the mark on Tuesday for the first time since February 3. The trend in soybean futures is sideways for now.
RECOMMENDATIONS*
(3/30/2026)
2026-27: With November soybean futures regaining roughly half of the losses from the mid-March selloff, and the possibility for larger than expected soybean planting intentions given rising fertilizer costs, I recommend rewarding the bounce from March lows with a forward sale of another 15% of new-crop production. November 2026 futures are trading near $11.52 at the time of this recommendation. This brings total marketings to 35% for new crop, a comfortable level for the time being and leaving upside opportunities open to participate in potential weather driven rallies during the late spring/early summer.
(3/5/2026)
2026-27: With soybean traders, for now, reluctant to extend the recent rally beyond last November’s highs, and a few significant events on the horizon — such as trade meetings between the U.S. and China, as well as the planting intentions report at the end of March, which is expected to show a shift towards more soybean area in 2026 — consider rewarding the return to highs over the past month with another forward sale of 10% of new-crop 2026 soybeans for harvest delivery. November 2026 futures were near $11.32 at the time of this recommendation.
(2/18/2026)
2025-26: With soybean futures reversing from early highs and the February rally showing signs of slowing with no clear signals of sustained sales to China into the typically Brazil dominated window, I recommend rewarding the rally thus far with a sale of 15% of 2025 production. May 2026 soybean futures are near $11.44 at the time of this recommendation with the spot DTN National Soybean Index likely near $10.63. If sold for April delivery, I believe a 5-10 cent carry is attainable from the spot bid, with a cash price objective for the sale of $10.70 reasonable to assume.
(1/13/2026)
2025-26: Regarding 2025-26 soybean sales, in December 2025, USDA offered details for Farmer Bridge Assistance payments, with soybean producers receiving $30.88 per planted acre, or approximately $0.59 per bushel based on the 2025 national average soybean yield of 53 bushels per harvested acre, and 99% national average for harvested area.
(10/28/2025)
2025-26 and 2026-27:
With soybean futures surging another 10-20 cents on trade optimism following an agreement with Japan and on hope of a pending deal with China, I advise to keep slowly rewarding this market rally with sales. The market is becoming very overbought in the short term so a reset/retracement may be due. That being said, I am recommending two orders be entered with brokers/grain buyers. First, consider selling another 10% of 2025 production if January futures hit $11.10 (current price approximately $10.95) with a cash price target for December or January delivery (assuming normal carry structure) of near $10.35 based on the current spot price (approximately $10.10) as implied by the DTN National Soybean Index. Simultaneously, consider selling in cash or as a hedge (discuss fees with your broker or grain buyer) 10% of 2026 soybean production if and when November 2026 soybean futures hit $11.10. November 2026 futures are near $11.00 at the time of this recommendation.
(10/27/2025)
2025-26:
With soybean futures up over 20 cents to start the week following positive trade negotiations with China through the weekend as well as a series of other trade deals, I believe a 10% sale of 2025-26 soybean production to be appropriate as the January futures board traded within a nickel of its 2025 calendar year high on overnight trade. The January 2026 contract is trading near $10.81 at the time of this recommendation, while the DTN National Soybean Index is likely near $9.94 for nearby delivery. Committing to a delivery window in December or January would secure a bid of at least $10.00 cash for the sale, I would think. As always, work with your grain buyer for potential bid pushes.
(10/20/2025)
2025-26:
Take advantage of a strong four day rally in soybean futures due to renewed trade optimism ahead of U.S. negotiations with China to sell another 15% of 2025-26 soybean production. November soybean futures were near $10.27 at the time of this recommendation, with the DTN National Soybean Index likely near $9.54, bringing net cash to approximately $9.35 for the sale. Recommendations are done under the assumption that roughly 50% of production cannot be stored on farm. This sale brings the 2025-26 cash total to 50% of production. Previous put protection will expire worthless on the remaining 25% hedged, for a total net cost across the original 50% hedge of approximately 18 1/4 cents.
(8/25/2025)
2025-26:
With the surprising cut to 2025 soybean acreage by the USDA in the August WASDE and subsequent rally in prices, consider rewarding the rally thus far with a 15% forward sale of 2025 soybean production. November soybeans are trading near $10.53 at the time of this recommendation. Simultaneously, unwind half of the previous put protection (representing 25% of production), with $9.80 November 2025 puts asking price near 3 5/8 cents, locking in a price of 16 3/8 cents for that previous hedge. Based on the DTN National Soybean Index, net cash for the sale should be near to $9.70 depending on fills.
(8/5/2025)
2025-26:
With November soybeans falling below $10.00 and the downside risk to the market growing due to poor demand from China as well as the potential for large yields, consider protecting an additional 50% of 2025 soybean production by purchasing $9.80 November 2025 soybean puts, currently bid near 20 cents per bushel. This will improve upon the floor offered by crop insurance currently, while also leaving the upside open to a rally should August and September weather prove detrimental to U.S. production.
(6/23/2025)
2025-26:
With November soybeans trading near 2025 highs last week but rapidly reversing off those highs, I recommend rewarding the markets rally off April lows thus far with a sale of the first 20% of new-crop soybeans. I remain cautiously optimistic regarding the soybean fundamental situation in 2025 and 2026; however, the seasonal tendency for prices to peak in summer cannot be ignored, as well as the potential for a bearish surprise in the June 30 acreage report, which further supports my belief that a sale here is appropriate. We will remain vigilant and prepared for a potential resumption of the rally to new 2025 highs. November soybean futures were near $10.55 at the time of this recommendation.
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*DTN recommendations are general in nature and are not intended to be specific for any particular person or farming business. The buying and selling of futures or options involves substantial risk and is not suitable for everyone. DTN accepts no responsibility for actual trades made.