Periodic Updates on the Futures Markets

March canola is up $10.90 per metric ton (mt), March soybean oil is up 1.13 cents/pound, May European rapeseed is up 4.50 euros per mt and February Malaysian palm oil is up .40%. March oats are up 1 1/4 cents/bushel. February crude oil is up $1.88 per barrel, February ULSD is up $.0824 per gallon, and the March Canadian dollar is down .00085 at .72205. The March U.S. Dollar Index is up .284 at 98.910 and the February Brazilian real is down .00035 at 0.18490.

Soybean oil and canola are again showing impressive resilience following otherwise bearish data from the USDA Monday. The low soybean oil yield and strong export demand continue to support gains, with sharp advances in energy markets helping. Canola has responded positively to word that Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe was invited to join PM Carney on the trip to China. That suggests positive news regarding canola tariffs may be coming despite Ottawa’s downplaying the chances of tariffs being removed at this meeting.

Most other ag markets have turned mixed, with soybeans still struggling thanks to Trump’s threat to add a 25% tariff to any country dealing with Iran. China is the main concern for the soybean market at this point. Even another 320,404 mt of soybean flash sales to China and Mexico weren’t enough to turn prices up, yet anyway. Meanwhile, corn has turned higher as doubt in Monday’s data creeps in, especially after the USDA raised its annual estimate of the average corn farm price (to $4.10 from $4/bushel).

Outside markets are relatively quiet as a benign CPI report was somewhat of a relief. Treasuries are quietly higher now while equities are mixed on the day. The U.S. dollar has added to gains as geopolitical risks increase. The increased concern over the situation in Iran and the resulting impact on its supply of crude oil has pushed energy markets sharply higher, with crude oil now over $5/barrel above last Wednesday’s low. Diesel is sharply higher as well (supporting vegetable oil markets) with gains of almost $.20/gallon seen since Wednesday.