Periodic Updates on the Futures Markets

March canola is up $5.80 per metric ton (mt), March soybean oil is up .01 cents/pound, May European rapeseed is up 3.75 euros per mt and April Malaysian palm oil is up .54%. March oats are up 3/4 cents/bushel. March crude oil is up $.51 per barrel, March ULSD is up $.0338 per gallon, and the March Canadian dollar is up .00195 at .73800. The March U.S. Dollar Index is up .284 at 96.335 and the February Brazilian real is down .00025 at 0.19170.

Grain and oilseed markets experienced a strong push higher at the start of the day session, with firming energy markets (on a social media post from President Trump warning Iran over a potential strike) and continued weakness in the U.S. dollar helping.

When Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested that the U.S. would not intervene to support the Japanese yen, the dollar jumped against the yen and most other currencies to varying degrees. That took some of the wind out of the sails of commodity markets, but not materially so. The resulting pullback in energy markets had the same effect on ag markets, especially soybean oil.

Corn should find some comfort in the weekly ethanol report showing daily production only fell 5,000 barrels-per-day (bpd) to 1.114 million bpd, with that exceeding pre-report estimates and last year’s comparable week by 9.8%. An unexpected draw (of 2.3 million barrels) of crude oil is likely helping that market, given stocks were expected to rise by 1 million barrels. Product inventories were little changed on the week.

Going into the afternoon Federal Reserve interest rate decision and following press conference, treasury markets remain quietly lower while equities have turned mixed after setting record highs in some cases. The U.S. dollar is higher, yet precious metals remain near their highs of the day. Gold is up over $200/ounce on the session, with a new record being set overnight at $5,306/ounce. The moves are quite remarkable considering it started 2025 at $2,641/ounce.