Periodic Updates on the Futures Markets

March canola is down $2.10 per metric ton (mt), March soybean oil is down .47 cent/pound, May European rapeseed is down .25 euro per mt and April Malaysian palm oil is down .02%. March oats are up 1/4 cent/bushel. March crude oil is up $2.01 per barrel, March ULSD is up $.0017 per gallon, and the March Canadian dollar is up another .00300 at .74150. The March U.S. Dollar Index is down .144 at 96.130 and the February Brazilian real is up .00065 at 0.19200.

It’s been quite a wild morning for most markets, with it appearing as though something major is going on behind the scenes — yet to be disclosed. Gold now has a $489/ounce range for the day, working on a key reversal lower. The odd part is the U.S. dollar is slightly weaker while equity markets are experiencing a significant selloff for no apparent reason. That is all even though energy markets are strong with crude oil up $3.27/barrel at the peak of the volatility. The gold reversal and weak stock market suggest whoever was caught short gold may have finally finished buying themselves out of their position, and the ripple effects could be large enough to impact stock market valuations (depending on who was hurt along the way). With over 350,000 gold contracts between just the Feb and April months, those two contracts alone were responsible for the transfer of $17.3 billion in wealth already today. The other possibility, based on the crude oil reaction, is an attack against Iran has started, but the reaction in gold and a lack of one in the U.S. dollar and treasury market would argue against it. Time will tell.

Regardless, grains and oilseeds gave up strong gains seen at the opening of the day session when volatility hit outside markets, with strength in energies not even helping. They are starting to recover as stability slowly returns to outside markets, with today’s close being fairly important. A weak finish would signal retreats from various levels of resistance and moving averages across many ag markets.