Periodic Updates on the Futures Markets

January canola is up $2.80 per metric ton (mt), Dec soybean oil is down .19 cents per pound, February European rapeseed is up 4.00 euro per mt and January Malaysian palm oil is up .07%. Dec oats are up 3 1/4 cents per bushel. December crude oil is up $.53 per barrel, December ULSD is down $.0118 per gallon, and the December Canadian dollar is down .00080 at .71480. The December U.S. Dollar Index is down .414 at 98.960 and the December Brazilian real is up .00045 at 0.18860.

Soybeans continue to lead grain and oilseed markets higher with the January contract hitting a high of $11.4875/bushel in early trade, up $.15/bushel on the day. Soybean meal joined soybeans with a break higher over last week’s highs while soybean oil reversed lower on the day due to spreading with meal and mild weakness seen in diesel prices. Canola has been left unsure who to follow with only modest gains after taking out last week’s highs in early trade.

In export reporting news, USDA released its schedule for catching up with missed reports. The daily flash sales (of sales over 100,000 mt) have been tracked during the shutdown with that data set to be released at 11 a.m. CST Friday along with the WASDE update. Look for extreme volatility as a result and consider having target orders in place. Then the regular weekly export sales reports will be trickled out until finally caught up by the end of the year. That will give some insight into the large purchases but not the total export demand picture (until the end of December) so many will still interpret it the way they want to; be careful with any firm conclusions. 

Outside markets are having a bit of an odd reaction to the entire situation. Treasuries are lower on the notion of higher interest rates for longer (as discussed in the opening comments), equities are now sharply lower on the higher interest rate outlook, yet the U.S. dollar is down fairly aggressively despite the shutdown ending and the higher interest rates. The weakness has left the dollar currently under its 25-day moving average so it will be important for the bulls to mount a recovery of some sort by the close. Energy markets are mixed ahead of the delayed EIA weekly inventory report (due out at 11 a.m. CST) with a build expected for crude oil and a draw for the products.