Periodic Updates on the Futures Markets

January canola is down $2.10 per metric ton (mt), March soybean oil is down .01 cents/pound, February European rapeseed is down 2.25 euro per mt and January Malaysian palm oil is up .37%. March oats are down 3 1/4 cents/bushel. January crude oil is up $.94 per barrel, January ULSD is down $.0006 per gallon, and the December Canadian dollar is up .00025 at .71770. The December U.S. Dollar Index is up .099 at 98.895 and the December Brazilian real is up .00040 at 0.18760.

Canola is seeing a bit of a relief rally as midday nears with only marginal losses remaining after an initial selloff on Statistics Canada’s final production figures out early Thursday. At 21.804 mmt, the canola total was above the pre-report average estimate of 21.25 mmt and Statistics Canada’s September estimate of 20.03 mmt but below the high end of the range of expectations at 22.1 mmt, resulting in the bounce off the lows.

All-wheat came in much above expectations at a record 39.955 mmt while traders had been looking for 38.49 mmt on average compared to 36.62 mmt in September. There too, the market has not been bothered by the report as unofficial estimates were for it to be larger yet. Similarly, oat, barley, peas and lentil production totals were all higher than September estimates and last year’s levels.

Soybeans and corn production both declined from September estimates (and last year) due to the prolonged drought impacting Eastern Canada. That likely had little to do with it, but both row-crop markets have firmed up throughout the morning as bargain hunting has kicked in with it appearing as though the start of the month profit-taking has run its course.

Gains in energy markets are likely helping the row crops as the market comes to term with the likelihood that the proposed peace deal will not get past the territorial disputes.  

In outside markets, Treasuries are extending losses while equities have turned mixed. The U.S. dollar has recovered from early losses, trading quietly higher on the increased interest rates.