USDA WASDE Highlights
03/10/2026 | 11:00 am CDT USDA WASDE Highlights
WASDE - 669 WHEAT: There are no changes this month for the 2025/26 U.S. wheat supply and use categories. The season-average farm price is up $0.05 per bushel to $4.95 on NASS prices reported to date and price expectations for the remainder of the marketing year. The 2025/26 global outlook this month projects larger supplies and consumption but reduces trade and ending stocks. Supplies rise by 0.2 million tons to 1,101.8 million, mainly on increased output for Ukraine and Kazakhstan that is partly offset by lower production for Australia. Production for Australia is down by 1.0 million tons, with the ABARES report showing a nearly complete harvest at 36.0 million its third highest on record. Global consumption is raised 0.7 million tons to a record 824.8 million, primarily on higher feed and residual use for the EU. World trade rises 0.2 million tons to 222.2 million, with larger exports for Argentina and Kazakhstan that are mostly offset by lower forecasts for the EU, Russia, and Ukraine. Exports from Argentina expand by 1.5 million tons to a record 19.5 million, as its wheat remains the worlds lowest-priced among major exporters. Projected 2025/26 global ending stocks are reduced 0.6 million tons to 277.0 million but remain a 5-year high. COARSE GRAINS: This months 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged relative to last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast 2.7 million tons higher to 1.593 billion. This months foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, greater trade, and higher ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is higher as increases for Ukraine and Brazil are partly offset by a decline for Argentina. Ukraine is raised based on the latest information from the State Statistics Service. Brazil is higher on an increase for first crop area. Argentina is lowered as dryness during February reduces yield prospects. Foreign barley production is raised, with an increase for Australia partly offset by a decline for Ukraine. Major global trade changes for 2025/26 include higher corn exports for India. For 2024/25, based on observed shipments to date Brazils exports for the marketing year ending February 2026 are higher while Argentina is reduced. Corn imports for 2025/26 are raised for Vietnam and the Philippines but lowered for India. Barley exports are raised for Australia with greater imports expected for China. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher, reflecting increases for Brazil, Ukraine, and India that are partly offset by a decline for Argentina. Global corn ending stocks, at 292.8 million tons, are up 3.8 million. RICE: The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. rice this month is for lower supplies, unchanged domestic and residual use, reduced exports, and steady ending stocks. Supplies are lowered on decreased imports (all long-grain) as imports from Thailand, the leading origin, continue to lag last years record pace. Imports are reduced 2.0 million cwt to 45.7 million. All rice exports are lowered 2.0 million cwt to 85.0 million (all long-grain) on persistent weak sales and shipments of rough rice to Western Hemisphere markets. With lower imports completely offsetting reduced exports and no other changes, all rice ending stocks remain at 50.3 million cwt. The long-grain season-average farm price (SAFP) is unchanged at $10.50 per cwt. However, the Other States medium- and short-grain SAFP is raised $0.40 per cwt to $14.20 on NASS prices reported to date and price expectations for the remainder of the marketing year. The 2025/26 global outlook this month is for fractionally lower supplies, smaller consumption, reduced trade, and increased ending stocks. Supplies are lowered 0.1 million tons to 732.5 million, primarily on reduced beginning stocks for Brazil as global production is virtually unchanged. World 2025/26 consumption is lowered 0.8 million tons to 541.0 million, mostly on reduced consumption estimates for several African countries. Global 2025/26 trade is decreased 1.3 million tons to 62.0 million, largely on a slower-than-expected pace of exports from India. Projected world ending stocks are raised 0.7 million tons to 191.5 million, as higher stocks for India are not completely offset by reductions for several countries. OILSEEDS: U.S. 2025/26 soybean supply and use projections include increased imports and crush, and unchanged ending stocks. Soybean imports are increased 5 million bushels reflecting trade to date. Crush is raised 5 million bushels, driven by higher soybean meal domestic use. Soybean meal and soybean oil extraction rates are revised based on observed data to date. Due to a lower soybean oil extraction rate, soybean oil production is slightly lower than last month despite the higher crush forecast. Soybean oil domestic use is marginally lower with lower soybean oil for biofuel use mostly offset by higher food, feed, and other industrial use. Soybean oil for biofuel use is lowered 800 million pounds to 14.0 billion and soybean oil ending stocks are revised slightly higher. U.S. soybean ending stocks are unchanged at 350 million bushels. The season-average soybean price is projected unchanged at $10.20 per bushel. The soybean meal price is raised $5 to $300 per short ton. The soybean oil price is projected at 55 cents per pound, up 2 cents. Global 2025/26 oilseed production is raised 1.8 million tons on higher sunflowerseed, rapeseed, and cottonseed production, partly offset by lower soybean production. Sunflowerseed production is raised for Argentina, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan while rapeseed is increased for Australia and Kazakhstan. Global soybean production is reduced on lower production for Argentina and Ukraine. Argentina production is lowered 0.5 million tons to 48 million on a lower yield partly offset by higher area. Ukraine production is reduced 0.5 million tons to 5.5 million on lower area. Global 2025/26 soybean supply and use forecasts include lower production, exports, crush, and ending stocks. Soybean exports are reduced for Ukraine and imports are lowered for India, Iran, and Turkey. Crush is reduced for Iran and largely offset by higher U.S. crush. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 0.2 million tons mainly on lower stocks for India and Ukraine. SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for 2025/26 is increased while deliveries for human consumption more than offset that increase, thereby reducing ending stocks for a stocks-to-use ratio of 15.24 percent compared with 15.89 percent last month. Cane sugar production in Florida is decreased to 1.956 million short tons, raw value (STRV) based on processors estimates of the production loss in Sweetener Market Data (SMD) incurred due to the freeze of early February. The total production loss is estimated at 242,825 STRV or 11.04 percent. (The reduction in the Sugar WASDE is lower than that amount because USDA knew of the freeze and did not adopt the processors higher production estimate submitted before the freeze occurred.) Louisiana cane sugar is increased a small amount based on SMD, and beet sugar is decreased on a small increase in beet pile shrink. Imports are increased 183,916 STRV to 2.427 million. Re-export imports are increased 50,000 STRV on the pace to date. High-tier tariff raw sugar imports are increased 43,104 STRV on quantities entered since the previous WASDE. Based on 5 months of import data from FAS, the monthly average of 16,432 conventional high-tier tariff refined sugar is applied to the remaining 7 months for an increase of 65,812 STRV. Consultations with organic traders call for an increase of 25,000 STRV to 236,000 which is back to where it was at the beginning of the fiscal year. Deliveries for human consumption are increased 117,000 STRV to 12.165 million. Pace to date compared with the averages for the previous 5 years suggests a delivery increase of 234,000 STRV, but with only 4 months of data, the increase in the WASDE is only half of that amount. Beet sugar deliveries are up, while domestic cane is down. Direct Consumption Imports are substantially higher than originally projected on the earlier assumed pace-to-date in the January WASDE. Ending stocks are residually projected at 1.878 million STRV. SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for 2025/26 is increased while deliveries for human consumption more than offset that increase, thereby reducing ending stocks for a stocks-to-use ratio of 15.24 percent compared with 15.89 percent last month. Cane sugar production in Florida is decreased to 1.956 million short tons, raw value (STRV) based on processors estimates of the production loss in Sweetener Market Data (SMD) incurred due to the freeze of early February. The total production loss is estimated at 242,825 STRV or 11.04 percent. (The reduction in the Sugar WASDE is lower than that amount because USDA knew of the freeze and did not adopt the processors higher production estimate submitted before the freeze occurred.) Louisiana cane sugar is increased a small amount based on SMD, and beet sugar is decreased on a small increase in beet pile shrink. Imports are increased 183,916 STRV to 2.427 million. Re-export imports are increased 50,000 STRV on the pace to date. High-tier tariff raw sugar imports are increased 43,104 STRV on quantities entered since the previous WASDE. Based on 5 months of import data from FAS, the monthly average of 16,432 conventional high-tier tariff refined sugar is applied to the remaining 7 months for an increase of 65,812 STRV. Consultations with organic traders call for an increase of 25,000 STRV to 236,000 which is back to where it was at the beginning of the fiscal year. Deliveries for human consumption are increased 117,000 STRV to 12.165 million. Pace to date compared with the averages for the previous 5 years suggests a delivery increase of 234,000 STRV, but with only 4 months of data, the increase in the WASDE is only half of that amount. Beet sugar deliveries are up, while domestic cane is down. Direct Consumption Imports are substantially higher than originally projected on the earlier assumed pace-to-date in the January WASDE. Ending stocks are residually projected at 1.878 million STRV. Mexico 2025/26 supply and use is marginally changed for fewer imports of 14,000 metric tons (MT) and an offsetting reduction in deliveries. Ending stocks are independently down by 14,000 MT based on a FAS Mexico City projection. There are no changes for exports under license to the United States. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Historical red meat, poultry, and egg supply and use estimates are adjusted to reflect revisions in slaughter, inventory, cold storage, and production data, as well as December trade data. Total red meat and poultry production for 2026 is raised on higher broiler production forecasts more than offsetting lower beef and turkey production. Beef production is forecast lower on the slower-than-expected pace of slaughter through early March, partially offset by heavier dressed weights. Pork production is unchanged. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on March 26, providing an indication of hog supplies for slaughter for 2026. Broiler production is raised for the first half of the year, based on recent slaughter and hatchery reports. Turkey production is lowered for the second half of the year, based on the latest hatchery data and Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)-related culling of turkeys reported through early March. Egg production is lowered for the first and second quarters of 2026 on recent hatchery data and HPAI-related culling of the egg-laying flock reported through early March. The beef export forecast for 2026 is lowered for the first half of the year on reduced production. Beef imports are raised on tighter beef supplies attracting additional shipments from global exporters. Pork exports are raised for the year on stronger demand, particularly to East Asia and Western Hemisphere markets. The broiler and turkey export forecasts are unchanged. Cattle prices are raised through the first three quarters of 2026 based on recent prices and continued strong demand for fed cattle. Hog prices are raised on recent price strength and stronger demand expected to continue through the year. The broiler price forecast is lowered for the second quarter of 2026 on recent prices and higher expected production. The turkey price forecast is raised for the first half of the year on tighter supplies. Egg price forecasts are lowered for the first, second, and third quarters of the year on recent prices and weaker-than-expected demand. Milk production for 2025 is revised on the latest data reported by NASS in the Milk Production report, while revisions to milk supply and use for 2025 reflect revised cold storage data and trade data through December. The milk production forecast for 2026 is raised from last month, as increases to the dairy cow inventory more than offset slower growth in output per cow. Imports are raised on a fat basis on additional imports of butter but are unchanged on a skim-solids basis. Exports are raised on a fat basis due to higher shipments of butter and cheese, as well as on a skim-solids basis due to higher shipments of cheese and whey products. Based on recent price strength, cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk (NDM) price forecasts are all raised for 2026. The whey price forecast is lowered. The Class III price forecast is unchanged with higher cheese prices offsetting lower whey prices. The Class IV price forecast is raised due to the stronger butter and NDM price outlook. The all milk price for 2026 is raised to $19.70 per cwt. COTTON: There are no changes to the 2025/26 U.S. cotton balance sheet or to prices this month. For the 2025/26 world cotton balance sheet, the global production forecast is raised over 1.1 million bales because of higher production in Brazil (larger area) and China (higher yield), partially offset by lower production in Argentina (reduced area). The world consumption forecast is down 140,000 bales with mill use projected lower in several countries, partially offset by higher consumption in China. Trade is increased by 200,000 bales as higher imports by India are partially offset by small reductions for several countries. The forecast for world ending stocks is raised almost 1.3 million bales to 76.4 million with India and Brazil accounting for much of the increase. The global stocks-to-use ratio for 2025/26 is raised by one percentage point from last month to 64 percent.