USDA WASDE Highlights 04/09

USDA WASDE Highlights 04/09

WASDE - 670

WHEAT: The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat this month is for slightly higher 
supplies, marginally lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending 
stocks. Supplies are raised entirely on higher imports, based on reported 
Census data through February. Domestic use is lowered, all on reduced seed use 
indicated by the NASS Prospective Plantings report. Exports are unchanged at 
900 million bushels, but there are offsetting by-class revisions. Ending stocks 
are raised to 938 million bushels, 10 percent higher than last year and the 
largest since 2019/20. The projected 2025/26 season-average farm price is 
raised $0.05 per bushel to $5.00 on NASS prices reported to date and price 
expectations for the remainder of the marketing year. 
This month’s 2025/26 global wheat outlook is for higher supplies, lower 
consumption, slightly less trade, and increased ending stocks. Supplies are 
raised 1.5 million tons to 1,103.2 million, mainly on higher production from 
the EU and Russia. Global 2025/26 consumption is lowered 4.7 million tons to 
820.1 million, mostly on reduced food, seed, and industrial use for India. That 
country’s government wheat stocks data for the first 11 months of its 
marketing year indicate higher stocks than previously estimated implying less 
domestic use. World trade is 0.3 million tons lower at 221.9 million on reduced 
exports for Ukraine, Australia, and Brazil not being completely offset by 
higher exports for Russia and Kazakhstan. Projected 2025/26 global ending 
stocks are raised 6.2 million tons to 283.1 million and are 24 million or 9 
percent higher than last year. India, Ukraine, the EU, Australia, and 
Bangladesh account for most of the stocks increase this month.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged relative 
to last month. Feed and residual use is unchanged at 6.2 billion bushels 
reflecting reported disappearance during the December-February quarter as 
indicated in the March 31 Grain Stocks report. Disappearance during the first 
half of the marketing year totaled 9.6 billion bushels, up over 1.0 billion 
from the same period a year ago. The season-average corn price received by 
producers is raised 5 cents to $4.15 per bushel based on reported prices to 
date. 
Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast 5.1 million tons higher 
to 1.598 billion. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger 
production, trade, and ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn 
production is raised, with increases for India, South Africa, Indonesia, and 
Russia partially offset by a decline for Uruguay. India is raised reflecting 
higher area based on the latest information reported by the government. South 
Africa is up on increases to both area and yield with the latter reflecting 
above average rainfall observed in most regions during the growing season. 
Major global trade changes for 2025/26 include higher projected corn exports 
for India, Russia, and South Africa with reductions for Pakistan and Uruguay. 
Corn imports are raised for Turkey and Morocco but reduced for Iran and 
Indonesia. Foreign corn ending stocks are up reflecting increases for India, 
South Africa, and Brazil. Global corn ending stocks, at 294.8 million tons, are 
up 2.1 million.  
RICE: The U.S. rice outlook for 2025/26 projects steady supplies, lower 
domestic use, reduced exports, and higher ending stocks. Domestic use and 
residual is lowered by 2.0 million cwt to 169.0 million, all long-grain, 
primarily on the latest NASS Rice Stocks report which indicated less 
December-February disappearance than previously estimated. All rice exports are 
reduced by 3.0 million cwt to 82.0 million, also all long-grain, on continued 
slow sales and shipments to Western Hemisphere markets. Ending stocks are 
increased by 5.0 million cwt to 55.3 million, the highest since 1985/86. The 
2025/26 season-average farm price (SAFP) for all rice stays at $12.10 per cwt 
with offsetting changes. The long-grain SAFP is lowered by $0.10 per cwt to 
$10.40, while the medium- and short-grain SAFP for Other States is raised $0.50 
per cwt to $14.70.
This month’s global rice forecast for 2025/26 is for higher supplies, lower 
consumption, reduced trade, and increased ending stocks. Supplies are up by 0.4 
million tons to 732.9 million, largely due to greater production in Thailand. 
Consumption is lowered by 0.4 million tons to 540.6 million, reflecting changes 
in several countries. Trade falls by 0.5 million tons to 61.5 million, mainly 
because of a reduction for Pakistan on its slow export pace. As a result of 
these changes, global ending stocks are raised 0.8 million tons to 192.3 
million.
OILSEEDS: The outlook for U.S. soybean supply and use for 2025/26 includes 
higher crush, lower exports, and unchanged ending stocks. Soybean crush is 
raised 35 million bushels to 2.61 billion on increased soybean meal domestic 
use. Exports are reduced 35 million bushels to 1.54 billion on pace to date and 
higher South American shipments. Soybean ending stocks are unchanged at 350 
million bushels.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2025/26 is forecast at $10.30 per 
bushel, up $0.10. The soybean meal price is increased $10 to $310 per short ton 
and the soybean oil price is raised 4 cents to 59 cents per pound.
Global 2025/26 soybean supply includes higher beginning stocks and production. 
Beginning stocks are raised 1.0 million tons mainly on a revised 2024/25 crop 
for Brazil. After a review of 2025 disappearance data, Brazil’s 2024/25 
production is raised 1.0 million tons to 172.5 million. Soybean production for 
2025/26 is raised 0.2 million tons on higher crops for Paraguay and South 
Africa partly offset by a lower crop for Uruguay.
Global 2025/26 soybean use includes nearly unchanged exports, higher crush, and 
lower ending stocks. Increased soybean exports for Brazil and Paraguay are 
mostly offset by lower exports for the United States and Uruguay. Soybean crush 
is increased for the United States, Brazil, and Algeria. Global soybean ending 
stocks are reduced 0.5 million tons to 124.8 million, mainly on lower stocks 
for Argentina, Brazil, and Egypt.
SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply and sugar use for 2025/26 are individually increased 
by nearly equal amounts implying ending stocks at about the same level as last 
month. Ending stocks-to-use is projected at 15.17 percent compared with 15.24 
last month. Beet sugar production is projected at 5.060 million short tons, raw 
value (STRV), a decrease of 32,840 from last month. The decrease is based on a 
small downward revision to sucrose recovery and an increase in beet pile shrink 
estimated by processors, somewhat offset by an increase in sugar from desugared 
molasses. Cane production in Louisiana is unchanged from last month, but 
production in Florida is increased by 20,000 STRV on processors’ reporting in 
the Sweetener Market Data (SMD). Imports at 2.512 million STRV are higher than 
last month by 84,144. Re-export imports are increased 50,000 STRV on the pace 
to date. High-Tier Tariff/Other imports are up 34,144 STRV mainly on an 
increase in specialty sugar that pushes its projected total for 2025/26 to 
268,895 STRV (an increase of 33,000 STRV), a level that is consistent with 
specialty imports over the last few years. For the use side, exports are 
decreased by 25,000 STRV on a weaker pace than previously expected. Deliveries 
for human consumption are up 94,291 STRV to 12.259 million mainly on an 
increase in Direct Consumption Imports on the to-date pace for the first 5 
months of the fiscal year. 
Mexico sugar production for 2025/26 is increased 101,288 metric tons (MT) and 
ending stocks are unchanged providing about 2.5 months of deliveries needed 
before production in the next marketing year. USDA expects area harvested 
between 690,000 and 727,000 hectares (ha); sugarcane yield between 65.50 and 
69.00 MT/ha; and sucrose recovery between 10.70 and 10.84 percent. The increase 
in production leads to an equal increase in exports. Because there are no 
changes for exports under license to the United States, the increase is 
directed to recipient countries not under license.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: For 2026, total red meat and poultry production 
is lowered. Pork production is lowered on reduced slaughter. The current 
outlook for hog slaughter in 2026 reflects the information provided in the 
March 26 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report that indicated lower farrowings through 
much of 2026. Beef production is reduced as lower steer and heifer slaughter in 
the first half of the year is partially offset by higher cow slaughter in the 
first two quarters and heavier dressed weights throughout the year. Broiler 
production is raised on the recent pace of slaughter and heavier weights 
through the start of the year. Turkey production is raised on recent hatchery 
data. Egg production is raised on recent layer inventory and production data.
Beef exports are lowered for 2026 due to the slow pace of shipments in early 
2026 and the reduction of available supplies in the first half of the year. 
Beef imports are raised based on recent trade data and continued strong demand 
for lean processing beef. Pork exports are raised in the first quarter due to 
the latest trade data but are unchanged for the rest of the year. Broiler 
exports are lowered in the second half of the year on reduced competitiveness 
in international markets. Turkey exports are raised for the first two quarters 
on recent trade data and increased production.
Cattle prices are left unchanged with the exception of the first quarter, which 
was updated to reflect reported data through March. Hog prices are lowered in 
the second and third quarters based on recent trends in hog and pork prices. 
Broiler prices are lowered in the first two quarters on reported data and 
higher forecasted supplies. Turkey prices are raised in the first quarter on 
reported prices but remain unchanged for the rest of the year. Egg prices are 
lowered on recent data and the expectation that the recovery in the laying 
flock and egg production will continue to apply downward pressure to prices.
The milk production forecast for 2026 is raised on increased cow inventories 
that more than offset slower growth in milk per cow. Imports are lowered on 
both a fat and skim-solids basis, primarily due to recent trade data and lower 
expected purchases of butter, casein and milk protein concentrates, as well as 
processed dairy products. Exports, however, are higher on both a fat and 
skim-solids basis due to higher projected shipments of cheese, butter, and dry 
whole milk.
Prices for cheese and nonfat dry milk (NDM) are raised for 2026 on recent price 
strength, strong domestic demand, and improved price competitiveness for cheese 
on the international market. Butter prices are lowered on recent price 
declines, and whey prices are unchanged. Class III prices are raised on higher 
cheese prices. Class IV prices are raised on higher NDM prices offsetting lower 
butter prices. The all milk price is projected higher to $20.50 per cwt.
COTTON: There are no changes to supply and demand categories in the 2025/26 
U.S. cotton balance sheet this month. The season-average farm price forecast is 
raised 1 cent to 61 cents/lb.
The forecast for 2025/26 world cotton production is raised almost 900,000 bales 
this month with 300,000-bale increases each for China, India and Pakistan, and 
small changes for other countries. The global consumption forecast is raised 
about 560,000 bales, driven by higher mill use for China and India that is 
partially offset by reductions for Bangladesh and Vietnam. World imports are 
lowered by roughly 160,000 bales as reductions for Pakistan, Bangladesh and 
Vietnam more than offset increases for China and India, with small changes for 
selected other countries. World exports are lowered almost 190,000 bales led by 
a decline for India. Global production, mill use, and ending stocks for 2024/25 
are raised primarily because of revisions to India’s balance sheet. The 
forecast for 2025/26 global ending stocks is raised by over 650,000 bales, 
largely because of increases for India and China. The projected global 
stocks-to-use ratio for 2025/26 is 64.7 percent, up marginally from last month.