Weekend Trade Deals, China Trade Optimism Send Ag Futures Sharply Higher

CME GLOBEX RECAP:

December corn is up 6 1/2, November soybeans are up 23. December KC wheat is up 11 1/4, Dec Chicago wheat is up 12 1/2, and December MIAX Minneapolis wheat is up .0825. 

OUTSIDE MARKETS:

The Dow Jones Industrials Index rose 472 points on Friday and Dow futures are up 236 points early Monday. November crude oil is down 3 cents per barrel. The U.S. Dollar Index is down .133 and November gold is down $88.40 an ounce.

CORN:

Weekend trade agreements with Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam and Thailand in addition to a framework agreement for a U.S.-China trade deal sent futures sharply higher in the overnight session. Add to that word a U.S. trade deal with Brazil could be imminent and the news has buoyed markets. President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet Wednesday night in South Korea and the stage is set for an agreement to be forged. In other news, analysts are leaning toward a corn yield that would be well under initial USDA estimates with talk of a range of yields of 181 bushels per acre (bpa) to 184 bpa. A prominent ag advisory firm over the weekend lowered their estimate from 184.3 bpa to 182.9 bpa. Corn harvest had an open weekend in all areas except the southern regions where heavy rain fell. Meanwhile in South America, weather remains highly favorable with heavy rain from Argentina into southern Brazil and that rain is expected to move into northern Brazil with 10-day totals likely to exceed 3 inches in some areas. Argentina’s corn crop is now 34% planted, according to the Buenos Aires Exchange. In the absence of U.S. government reports as the shutdown enters its 27th day, corn demand is still assumed to be very good with inspections year-to-date up 61% from a year ago. December corn is close to challenging the double top at $4.31 1/4 from September, but plenty of chart selling should emerge in the $4.35 to $4.40 area. Corn is also approaching the overbought zone. Coming into Monday, the best guess on the managed fund trade net-short position is 107,000 contracts. DTN’s National Corn Index closed at $3.84 and 39 cents below the December contract.

SOYBEANS:

November soybeans gapped higher overnight following news that four new trade deals were agreed to, and weekend meetings between U.S. trade representatives and their Chinese counterparts apparently were very successful. We will sure find out more by Thursday after the much-publicized meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi takes place. Over the weekend, trade talks resulted in an agreement to a pause in tariffs from both sides and a China suspension of rare-earth mineral export restrictions. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated China would again start “substantial” purchases of U.S. ag products — especially soybeans. It is surely speculation at this point with the Trump-Xi meeting likely to give more details. For more details, please see Ag Policy Editor Chris Clayton’s article here: https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/article/2025/10/26/china-trade-talks-new-asia-deals-ag. On Friday, optimism drove November to the highest weekly close since June and Sunday’s rally is adding to that. Even with the framework for a new trade pact, the window is still very narrow with China allegedly covered on soy needs into December and Brazil values much cheaper beginning in late January. Brazil’s soy planting is ahead of the average pace, and IMEA reported that major producing state, Mato Grosso is now 60% done. In the U.S., the soybean harvest is estimated to be nearing 80% to 85% complete. Soybean meal futures also gapped higher and are up for the tenth consecutive day, with December about to challenge the $300 high set in August. Bean oil futures are more subdued, trading mildly higher, pressured by the lower palm and crude oil markets. While nothing is set in stone yet, spot November is close to challenging the June high and is becoming very overbought. DTN’s National Soybean Index closed at $9.71 with a soybean basis of 71 under the November futures.

WHEAT:

Although there is little chance U.S. wheat will benefit from a trade deal with China, both Kansas City and Chicago wheat futures gapped higher along with Paris milling wheat. The latter gapped higher and rose above the 50-day moving average for the first time since late June. Wheat still has plenty of reasons to stay subdued with world supplies from major exporters on an upward trajectory. Weekend comments from the Buenos Airies Exchange projected Argentine wheat production to be in that 22 million metric ton (mmt) to 23 mmt range and sharply above USDA’s estimate. Argentine wheat conditions are 88% good to excellent and just 3% poor to very poor in stark contrast to last year at 38% good to excellent and nearly 20% poor to very poor. Wheat is more about short-covering following the weekend trade news, with funds thought to still be short 150,000 contracts combined of KC and Chicago wheat. In other news, French wheat is now 57% planted compared to just 20% a year ago. DTN’s National HRW Index closed at $4.32 and 69 under the December futures board.

Dana Mantini can be reached at Dana.Mantini@dtn.com