DTN Cattle Six Factors

TREND: The trend in June live cattle is steady/somewhat higher.   

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial traders held a net long futures position of 104,016 in live cattle for the week ending April 7, an increase of 11,756 contracts as traders returned to steady buying in the cattle market amid lingering supply concerns and strengthening seasonal demand.  

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: On the futures board, commercials remain moderately short in live cattle as of April 7 likely hedged positions. At the time of this writing no cash cattle trade has developed, as packers and feedlot managers are in a locked standoff.

SEASONAL INDEX: Cash cattle prices tend to peak in March and bottom in October.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The most active futures contract (June) remained steady at the 99th percentile as live cattle futures once again challenge all-time highs amid supply concerns ahead of seasonally strong demand.

VOLATILITY: The three-month price volatility for June live cattle remained steady at 4% as the futures market continues to desire for the complex to scale higher and believes fundamental support will justify the move.