Gulke: Can Nov. WASDE Be Bullish Corn?
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This price chart shows December 2026 corn futures have attacked the July 3, 2025, close in the past and failed to sustain. (Chart by Gulke Group)
The predictions on corn yields seem to be decreasing with every new estimate being released by private firms. Gulke Group looked at just what it would take to get a neutral report, let alone a bullish one. The supply and demand table (see below) looks rather precarious.
With NASS finding an extra 200 million bushels of corn, likely reflecting too-optimistic feed and residual use, it increased carryout for 2024-25; carry-in to 2025-26 is now 1.53 billion bushels (bb). If yield is left at 186.7 bushels per acre, carryout rises to 2.313 bb. That won’t happen, as most market watchers believe the current average yield is less than 186.7 bpa.
Scenario 1 in the chart below suggests that if yield drops to 182 bpa and 250 mb is cut from feed and residual, this optimistic scenario sees ending stocks at 2.140 bb.
Scenario 2 extrapolates the 2.140 bb to 2026-27, and even if we plant 4 million acres less and yield doesn’t increase much, carryover increases to 2.313 bb.
What do 2026 December futures indicate? The price chart accompanying this week’s column shows CZ26 having attacked the July 3, 2025, close in the past and failed to sustain. It did it last week and again this week, but no cigar. It seems the market is counting on the Nov. 14 WASDE report to give a big boost to tightening up supply and demand with a bigger cut in yield and/or no cut in demand to support concerns of fewer corn acres, as the cost of production says $4.60 won’t work. Perhaps soybeans will impress?
If we cut 4 million acres or more of corn, where will it go? It is likely to go to soybeans. A cursory look at soybean supply and demand suggests the WASDE report needs to reflect China to tighten the U.S. balance sheet sufficiently to need 4 million acres more next year and keep corn nervous that more than 4.0 million acres will come out of corn to beans.
It appears there will be enough updated data on Nov. 14 for the data-starved market to where someone will be surprised. No doubt, the obvious will continue to prevail; keep buying expensive put options to protect the downside. How did that work for you in October with corn rising 20 cents and soybeans a dollar?
| Gulke Group Inc. | 2024/25 | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | 2025/26 | Scenario 1 2025/26 | Scenario 2 2026/27 |
| USDA Corn S/D | 12-Sep | 30-Sep | 12-Sep | 30-Sep | 14-Nov | 14-Nov |
| Planted Acres | 90.6 | 90.9 | 98.7 | 98.7 | 98.7 | 94.7 |
| Harvested Acres | 82.9 | 83 | 90.1 | 90.1 | 90.1 | 86.7 |
| Yield | 179.3 | 179.3 | 186.7 | 186.7 | 182 | 184 |
| Carryin | 1,763 | 1,763 | 1,325 | 1,530 | 1,530 | 2,140 |
| Production | 14,867 | 14,890 | 16,813 | 16,813 | 16,390 | 15,953 |
| Imports | 20 | 20 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| Total Supply | 16,650 | 16,673 | 18,163 | 18,368 | 17,945 | 18,118 |
| Feed & Residual | 5,675 | 5,675 | 6,100 | 6,100 | 5,850 | 5,850 |
| Food/Seed/Ind | 6,820 | 6,820 | 6,980 | 6,980 | 6,980 | 6,980 |
| Ethanol for Fuel | 5,435 | 5,435 | 5,600 | 5,600 | 5,600 | 5,600 |
| Domestic Use | 12,495 | 12,495 | 13,080 | 13,080 | 12,830 | 12,830 |
| Exports | 2,830 | 2,830 | 2,975 | 2,975 | 2,975 | 2,975 |
| Total Use | 15,325 | 15,325 | 16,055 | 16,055 | 15,805 | 15,805 |
| Ending Stocks | 1,325 | 1,530 | 2,108 | 2,313 | 2,140 | 2,313 |
| Stocks/Use | 8.60% | 10.00% | 13.10% | 14.40% | 13.50% | 14.60% |
| Ave. Farm Price ($/bu) | 4.30 | 4.30 | 3.90 | 3.75 | ? | ? |
Jerry Gulke can be reached at (707) 365-0601 or by email at Jerry@gulkegroup.com
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