DTN Soybean Six Factors

TREND: The trend for May soybeans is sideways for now.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial soybean traders held a net-long futures position of 208,459 contracts as of April 7, a decrease of 19,387 contracts as traders booked profit on long positions during a period of escalating tension between the U.S. and Iran.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercial soybean traders held a net-short futures position of 177,172 contracts as of April 7, and were net-buyers of 17,273 contracts through the CFTC reporting period. The May to July soybean futures spread closed the week at 15 1/4 cents of carry, narrowing (less carry) through the week but still among the highest degree of carry through the lives of the contracts. The national average soybean basis firmed 3 cents through the most recent week to 68 cents under the May board, still the fourth weakest basis of the past decade for early April.

SEASONAL INDEX: Soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom in early October.  

PRICE PROBABILITY: In the latest week, the most active (May) soybean futures contract rose to the 27th percentile, still within the lower third of observed prices within the five-year range.

VOLATILITY: Three-month price volatility for front month (May) soybean futures held at 9% after prices finished higher for the second straight week.