DTN Wheat Analysis and Recommendations
04/15/2026
NOTE: Regarding crop sales — in December 2025, USDA offered details for Farmer Bridge Assistance payments, with wheat producers receiving $39.35 per planted acre, or approximately $0.90 per bushel based on the 2025 national average wheat yield of 53.3 bushels per harvested acre, and 82% national average acreage for harvested area.
The most recent recommendation was made on Feb. 19, 2026 — see recommendations below.
POSITIONS:
2026-27: Forward sold another 25% of 2026-27 winter wheat production with July KC futures near $5.86 and July Chicago futures near $5.74. 50% of 2025-26 winter wheat production remains unsold at this time.
2026-27: Sold the first 25% of new-crop 2026 winter wheat with July KC futures near $5.71 and July Chicago futures near $5.58.
2025-26: Sold the final 25% of 2025 HRW and SRW production on Feb. 18, 2026, with March 2026 Chicago near $5.44 and March 2026 KC near $5.47. At the time of the sale, the DTN HRW Index was near $4.80 and DTN SRW Index was near $4.85. That brings sales to 100% of the 2025 HRW and SRW wheat crops.
2025-26: Sold another 25% of 2025 HRW and SRW production on Nov. 5, 2025 with March 2026 Chicago at $5.68 and March 2026 KC at $5.53. That takes us to 75% sold on each. At the time of the sale the DTN HRW Index was $4.84 and the DTN SRW Index was $5.06. That leaves 25% of the crop left to sell.
2025-26: Sold another 25% of 2025 HRW and SRW wheat production on October 28, 2025 with March 2026 Chicago futures near $5.50 and March 2026 KC futures near $5.40. That takes us to 50% sold on each. At the time of the sale, the DTN HRW Index was $4.52 and the DTN SRW Index near $4.69 That leaves another 50% of the crops left to sell.
2025-26: Sold the first 25% of 2025 HRW and SRW wheat production on June 18, 2025, with July KC futures near $5.60 and July Chicago futures near $5.64.
2024-25: Sold remaining 2024 SRW and HRW wheat production on June 18, 2025, for spot delivery with July 2025 Chicago wheat futures near $5.64 and July 2025 KC futures near $5.60. The DTN National SRW Index was likely near $5.15 and the DTN National HRW Index near $5.00.
2024-25: Entered orders to sell 50% of HRW and SRW wheat production on March 17, 2025, when May KC wheat futures hit $6.10, and May Chicago wheat futures hit $5.76.
2024-25: Sold the first 25% of 2024 HRW and SRW wheat production on May 29, 2024 when prices were near $7.19 (July KC), and $6.92 (July Chicago.
2023-24: Sold the final 25% of SRW and HRW wheat production on May 7, 2024, when prices were near $6.49 (July Chicago) and $6.68 July KC.
2023-24: Sold 25% of 2023 SRW and HRW wheat production on April 26, 2024, when prices were near $6.08 (May Chicago) and $6.43 (May KC).
2023-24: Sold 25% of 2023 SRW and HRW wheat production on Dec. 6, 2023, when prices were near $6.41 (March Chicago) and $6.69 (March KC).
2023-24: Sold 25% of 2023 SRW and HRW wheat production on July 25, 2023, when prices were near $7.55 (September Chicago) and $9.06 (September KC).
2022-23: Sold remaining 50% of 2022 SRW wheat production June 1, 2023, at $6.10 (July Chicago).
2022-23: Sold remaining 50% of 2022 HRW wheat production same day at $8.01 (July KC).
2022-23: Sold 50% of 2022 SRW wheat production May 26, 2023, at $6.13 (July Chicago).
2022-23: Sold 50% of 2022 hard winter wheat production May 15, 2023, at $9.04 1/4 (July KC).
2022-23: Sold 50% of 2022 hard winter wheat production May 15, 2023, at $9.04 Kansas City July 2023 wheat.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Winter wheat markets finished sharply lower in the past week as the ceasefire occurred and better rain chances are forecast for HRW areas. Chicago wheat and KC wheat markets are neutral, Type 3 markets.
DAILY NOTE
July Chicago wheat rose 1/2 cent Wednesday in quiet trade on weaker volume to close at $6.01 3/4. July KC futures finished another 2 1/4 cents higher to settle at $6.38 1/2 on lower volume, still supported by continued dryness in the western Plains. Both winter wheat markets are in a higher trend.
RECOMMENDATIONS*
(02/19/2026):
Sell another 25% of new crop 2026 HRW and SRW. KC July wheat has rallied 56 cents above the mid-December low with Chicago July up close to 50 cents. At the time of the recommendation, July KC futures are near $5.86 and Chicago July futures are near $5.74. World wheat supplies remain burdensome, and in the next 10-15 cents there is formidable chart resistance, and we are just below a downtrend line drawn from the February high. That would bring us to 50% sold on the 2026 HRW and SRW wheat crops.
(02/18/26)
2025-26 and 2026-27:
With KC and Chicago wheat futures having rallied nearly 44 cents from the December low, with a potential double top just above and with world supplies plentiful, we recommend selling the final 25% of the 2025-26 production for both the soft red and hard winter wheat varieties. At the time of the recommendation, March 2026 KC futures are near $5.47 and March 2026 Chicago futures are near $5.44. At the time of the sale, the DTN HRW Index was near $4.80 and DTN SRW Index was near $4.85. Sell the first 25% of new crop 2026 HRW and SRW. KC July wheat has rallied 42 cents above the mid-December low. At the time of the recommendation, July KC futures are near $5.71 and Chicago July futures are near $5.58. World wheat supplies remain burdensome, and weekend storms are headed for the Plains and eastern wheat areas.
(11-05-25)
With KC and Chicago wheat futures having rallied nearly 60 cents from the mid-October low, and with the markets being overbought, major chart resistance just above and world supplies burdensome, we recommend selling another 25% of the 2025-26 production for both the soft red and hard winter wheat varieties. At the time of the recommendation, March 2026 KC futures are near $5.53 and March 2026 Chicago futures are near $5.68. Although we may have sold some soft wheat to China, it is likely a one-off deal. At the time of the sale the DTN HRW Index was near $4.84 and the DTN SRW Index near $5.06.
(10-28-2025)
With KC and Chicago wheat futures having rallied more than 40 cents from the mid-October low and with the markets being overbought and world supplies burdensome, we recommend selling another 25% of the 2025-26 production for both the soft red and hard winter wheat varieties. At the time of the recommendation, March 2026 KC futures are near $5.40 and March 2026 Chicago futures are near $5.50. The U.S. is still overpriced compared to other major exporters and is unlikely to benefit from the anticipated China trade deal. At the time of the sale, the DTN HRW Index was near $4.52 and the DTN SRW Index near $4.69.
(6-18-25)
2024-25 and 2025-26:
With July KC and Chicago futures having rallied around 50 cents over the past month from May lows, we recommend rewarding this rally by selling the remainder of the 2024 crops for both wheat varieties, while also selling the first 25% of the 2025 crops for both varieties. At the time of this recommendation, July KC futures were near $5.60 and the DTN National HRW Index estimated to be near $5.00. July Chicago futures were near $5.64 and the DTN National SRW Index estimated to be near $5.15.
(3-17-25)
2024-25:
With May Kansas City wheat futures having rallied near 60 cents above the early March lows, we recommend rewarding the price bounce by entering orders to sell 50% of 2024 HRW and SRW production when May Kansas City futures hit $6.10 and May Chicago wheat futures hit $5.76, respectively. According to DTN National Cash indices this should translate to a $5.40 cash offer for HRW, and $5.17 for SRW. Work with your local grain buyer for an ideal basis.
(5/29/24)
2024-25:
With July Kansas City wheat having moved as much as $1.77 higher since mid-April, take advantage of the rally and sell the first 25% of 2024 HRW production at this time. July KC wheat is trading near $7.19 at the time. Sell versus the July or September depending on your local choices.
With July Chicago wheat having moved as much as $1.70 higher just since mid-April, take advantage of the rally and sell the first 25% of 2024 SRW wheat production at this time. Chicago July wheat is trading near $6.92. Sell versus the July or September futures depending on your local choices
(5/7/24)
2023-24:
Take advantage of the sharp rally in both Chicago and KC wheat to sell the final 25% of each 2023 production of HRW and SRW wheat at this time. July Chicago was trading near $6.49 and July Kansas City near $6.68 at the time of the recommendation.
*DTN recommendations are general in nature and are not intended to be specific for any particular person or farming business. The buying and selling of futures or options involves substantial risk and is not suitable for everyone. DTN accepts no responsibility for actual trades made.