DTN Corn Six Factors

TREND: The trend for May corn is revised to sideways for now.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial corn traders held a net-long futures position of 290,819 contracts as of April 7, and were net-sellers of 43,938 contracts during the CFTC reporting period as traders have been active securing profits after building their largest length in corn futures in over a year by late March.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercial corn traders held a net-short position of 232,969 contracts as of April 7, and were net-buyers of 40,674 contracts through the CFTC reporting period. The May 2026 contract is priced 10 cents lower than the July 2026 contract, narrowing (less carry) slightly through the week, but still among the highest degree of carry between the two contracts through their trading lives. National average corn basis firmed 1 cent through the past week to 38 cents under the May board, still the weakest basis of the past decade for early April.

SEASONAL INDEX: Corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom in early October.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The front month (May) corn futures contract finished the most recent week down 3 points to the 13th percentile, a very inexpensive price to buyers.

VOLATILITY: Three-month price volatility for the most active (May) corn contract held at 7% after prices traded lower for the fourth consecutive week.