DTN HRS Six Factors

TREND: The trend for May Minneapolis wheat is now higher but threatening to turn the trend.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial traders in Minneapolis wheat were net-long 25,480 contracts, a decrease of 1,152 contracts over the week ended April 7.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: CFTC data showed commercials in Minneapolis wheat net short 25,902 contracts as of April 7, a decrease of 513 contracts from the previous week. The May contract is priced 15 1/2 cents below the July and is a bearish indication of commercial demand.

SEASONAL INDEX: The seasonal influence in spring wheat is weak, but prices tend to peak in late May and bottom somewhere from late September to late November.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The most active Minneapolis wheat contract (May) fell to the 8th percentile, a fairly inexpensive location within the five-year price range.

VOLATILITY: Three-month price volatility remained at 10% after May Minneapolis wheat ended the past week sharply lower.