DTN Wheat Six Factors

TREND: The trend is still higher for May Chicago and May Kansas City wheat.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial traders were net-short 18,707 futures contracts of Chicago wheat, an increase of 9,292 contracts in the week ended April 7.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercials held a net-long futures position of 17,642 contracts of Chicago wheat as of April 7, an increase of 10,118 contracts through the CFTC reporting period. The May Chicago wheat contract is 9 3/4 cents under the July contract, a slightly bearish position. May KC wheat is now 14 1/1 cents below the July contract, a more bearish indication of demand.

SEASONAL INDEX: Seasonal influence is weak for winter wheat, but winter wheat prices tend to peak in early August and bottom near Thanksgiving.

PRICE PROBABILITY: The most active Chicago wheat contract (May) fell to the 10th percentile, still an inexpensive price location within the five-year range.

VOLATILITY: Three-month price volatility remained at 12% after May Chicago wheat closed lower last week.